The dairy cattle market is currently experiencing an unprecedented surge in demand, creating a bustling atmosphere in the industry. As the competition heats up, market players are closely observing what is currently trending – is it beef-on-dairy calves or the traditional dairy replacements and fresh cows?
The answer is both, as beef-on-dairy calves are going for astronomical prices. But, according to recent insights from TLAY Dairy Video Sales, dairy replacement heifers and fresh cows have become an exceptionally hot commodity.
By hosting an online video auction on the first Friday of every month, TLAY Dairy Video Sales have established a platform where semi-loads of dairy cattle from across the U.S. find their rightful owners. Jake Bettencourt, the manager of TLAY Dairy Video Sales, stressed the intensified demand for cattle.
“In 2025, we see a completely different landscape compared to previous years,” Bettencourt explains.
Prices that seemed stable in 2022 and 2023 have now skyrocketed. Illustrating this point, Jersey springers, previously ranging between $1,400 and $1,500, have leaped significantly, affecting the cost-effectiveness of replacements.
Unpacking Current Price Trends
This evolution in market prices is evident in the recent results from TLAY Dairy Video Sales:
• Jersey fresh heifers command prices from $2,900 to $3,100.
• Jersey cross fresh heifers average between $3,100 to $3,200.
• Holstein springers average between $3,350 to $3,700 (many carrying beef-on-dairy cross calves)
• Jersey springers $2,850 – $3,000
• Holstein fresh cows range from $3,600 to $3,775.
• Mid-lactation, confirmed pregnant Holstein cows fetch around $3,500.
Bettencourt points out a growing trend: cows carrying beef-on-dairy calves are realizing more value than those carrying sexed calves.
The Nationwide Dairy Heifer Inventory Crunch
In addition to the heated demand, the nationwide dairy heifer inventory is under significant strain. The recent USDA annual Cattle report underscores this scenario, revealing a critical shortage in the available dairy heifers as of January 1. Despite a slight upward adjustment in 2024 estimates, the inventory remains the lowest since 1978 with only 3.914 million head available – a 0.9% decrease from the prior year.
This scarcity is further exemplified by the high prices fetched by two loads of Holstein open heifers at 475 lbs., that were sold off by TLAY, each bringing between $1,800 and $1,850. And a load of Jersey open heifers from Oregon at 410 lbs. sold for $1,625 each and one load of Jersey open heifers from Idaho sold at 600 lbs. at $1,825.
Market Predictions and Insights
Phil Plourd, president of Ever.Ag Insights, says that the USDA’s Cattle Report published last month underscored what we all knew—and that is we don’t have a lot of heifers on hand. The ratio of replacements to milking cows is at 41.9%, the lowest level since 1991.
However, Plourd points out that financial incentives to the producer haven’t changed.
“It’s a classic ‘bird in hand versus two in the bush’ situation. In this case, the bird in hand is something like $900 for a day-old beef calf. That still strikes producers as a better deal than the risks and uncertainties of raising a dairy heifer. The beef situation isn’t any different, either, with the Cattle Report showing the smallest beef inventories since 1961 and all-cattle and calf inventories since 1951. The whole situation is one of the more intriguing mysteries I’ve seen in the 25-plus years I’ve been hanging around the dairy industry,” he says.
The dairy industry’s landscape is an intriguing blend of challenges and opportunities. As Plourd anticipates, changes might arise as beef and dairy producers opt to retain 5% to 10% more heifers, providing a buffer even if incentives do not align. Navigating this intricate scenario requires a keen understanding of evolving market conditions and strategic foresight. As the industry moves forward, these shifts promise to dictate the path ahead for dairy cattle stakeholders.
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