It’s no secret beef producers are not rebuilding their cowherds. Leastwise, not in any large-scale fashion yet. The question of when the process will start was addressed recently by the Farm Journal Monthly Monitor, a survey of nearly 70 ag economists across the U.S.
The October survey asked economists at what point they believe beef producers will start rebuilding their cowherds:
- 50% said in the first half of 2026
- 30% think it’ll happen the second half of 2025
- 20% said in the first half of 2025
“It really comes down to, when do we turn this weather pattern around and start getting the pasture, the feed necessary in the West in order to incentivize rebuilding the cowherd? That is the problem right now,” says Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX.
Other than weather, what else is preventing beef producers from starting to rebuild? Economists surveyed said some of the reasons include the average age of producers, replacement costs and heifer prices.
“I think there is this economic pull on producers of ‘How can I justify retaining these heifers when they’re bringing the prices that they are?’” says Ben Brown, University of Missouri ag economist.
Practical Perspective
Rick Funston, University of Nebraska-Lincoln reproductive physiologist, encourages producers to determine what makes the best sense businesswise.
“Is it raising a replacement heifer, purchasing a bred heifer, purchasing a pair or something that’s had a calf or two?” Funston says in a recent webinar.
He contends most producers shouldn’t be raising replacements for their own herd, because of what they’re giving up in genetic potential, unless they have a minimum herd size of 250 cows.
“If we don’t keep replacements, we could then go to a terminal sire system so we don’t have to worry about calving ease,” Funston says, adding that sire selection determines more than 85% of the total improvement made in a herd.
Veterinarians can provide an invaluable service to producers by helping them evaluate what kind of replacement heifer will best fit their operation and business goals. In the chart, Funston shares some selection criteria that can help you in the process.
Click here to listen to Rick Funston’s complete presentation.
