The January 1, 2024, beef cow herd inventory was 28.22 million head, down 2.5 percent year over year and a decrease of 3.47 million head or 10.9 percent lower, from the cyclical peak in 2019.
USDA reports 47% of pasture and range conditions are in good to excellent health, compared to just 34% a year ago. Pasture and range conditions rated poor and very poor is down 9% from last year.
The feedlot inventory as a percentage of the total inventory has increased over time, and the declining number of feeder cattle means there are not sufficient feeder cattle to maintain feedlot inventories this year.
Statistically, impulse heifer breeding is about 80 percent more variable than planned heifer breeding. Therefore, impulse heifer breeding plays an important role in the dynamics of cattle cycles.
U.S. hay production in 2023 was 6.3% higher than the drought year of 2022, but remains 7.8% lower than the 10-year average. Hay stocks were higher in eight of the ten states, with decreases only in Kansas and Kentucky.
Despite ever smaller feeder cattle supplies, feedlot inventories have temporarily halted the slow decline of the last year with the September surge in placements.
There can be little doubt that the biggest issue in the cattle industry right now is the question of when herd rebuilding will begin. The challenge of herd rebuilding can be summed up with three questions.
Although drought persists north and south of Oklahoma, forage conditions have improved greatly in the state this summer. July was the seventh wettest July on record in Oklahoma.
Despite sharply higher cattle prices, there is no data to suggest heifer retention or enough decrease in beef cow slaughter to initiate herd expansion, although the most recent weekly slaughter data are encouraging.
The sharp increase in feeder cattle prices this year represents a growing market incentive for the beef cattle industry to transition from liquidation to expansion, but it does not appear the industry is responding yet.
