Latest News From Derrell Peel - Oklahoma State University

Peel: Planned and Impulse Heifer Breeding
Peel: Planned and Impulse Heifer Breeding

Statistically, impulse heifer breeding is about 80 percent more variable than planned heifer breeding. Therefore, impulse heifer breeding plays an important role in the dynamics of cattle cycles.

U.S. Cattle Inventory Reaches 73 Year Low
U.S. Cattle Inventory Reaches 73 Year Low

The January 1, 2024, beef cow herd inventory was 28.22 million head, down 2.5 percent year over year and a decrease of 3.47 million head or 10.9 percent lower, from the cyclical peak in 2019.

Winter Hay Supplies Higher
Winter Hay Supplies Higher

U.S. hay production in 2023 was 6.3% higher than the drought year of 2022, but remains 7.8% lower than the 10-year average. Hay stocks were higher in eight of the ten states, with decreases only in Kansas and Kentucky.

BT_Feedlot_Cattle_Kansas
Peel: Ensuring High Cattle Prices for Longer

Despite ever smaller feeder cattle supplies, feedlot inventories have temporarily halted the slow decline of the last year with the September surge in placements.

Peel: The Herd Rebuilding Challenge
Peel: The Herd Rebuilding Challenge

There can be little doubt that the biggest issue in the cattle industry right now is the question of when herd rebuilding will begin. The challenge of herd rebuilding can be summed up with three questions.

Small_Grains_Forage
Peel: Oklahoma Forage Production Rebounds

Although drought persists north and south of Oklahoma, forage conditions have improved greatly in the state this summer. July was the seventh wettest July on record in Oklahoma.

Several Reasons for Slow Herd Expansion
Several Reasons for Slow Herd Expansion

Despite sharply higher cattle prices, there is no data to suggest heifer retention or enough decrease in beef cow slaughter to initiate herd expansion, although the most recent weekly slaughter data are encouraging.

Peel: No Herd Rebuilding in Sight
Peel: No Herd Rebuilding in Sight

The sharp increase in feeder cattle prices this year represents a growing market incentive for the beef cattle industry to transition from liquidation to expansion, but it does not appear the industry is responding yet.

Drought and Forage Challenges Continue in 2023
Drought and Forage Challenges Continue in 2023

Persistent drought in major beef cattle production regions continues to have a significant impact on the cattle industry despite improvements in drought conditions in other parts of the country.

Replacement Heifer Dynamics
Replacement Heifer Dynamics

Uncertain when, but there will be strong interest in rebuilding the herd when conditions permit. Leaving aside the question of more drought, what's possible in 2023 given current availability of replacement heifers?

Herd Liquidation May Be Slowing Down
Herd Liquidation May Be Slowing Down

It seems likely that many producers have adjusted herd inventories, given hay and feed supplies, to be able get through the winter.

Peel: Oklahoma Fall Forage Situation
Peel: Oklahoma Fall Forage Situation

Given the limited hay supply, proportionally more wheat pasture is likely to be used for cow herds than for stockers.  Even if there is wheat pasture, stocker demand may be somewhat lighter than usual this year.

Peel: Drought Impacts Advancing Rapidly
Peel: Drought Impacts Advancing Rapidly

Drought impacts have accelerated sharply in the southern plains in July, with the volume of feeder cattle in Oklahoma auctions up 24% the last two weeks and the volume of cows and bulls up nearly 124%.

Drought Threat Expanding
Drought Threat Expanding

Drought is expanding in the country. There is plenty of time to avoid widespread drought impacts but without significant moisture in the next 2-3 months, the cattle industry could see major impacts.

Peel: A First Look at Fall/Winter Stocker Grazing
Peel: A First Look at Fall/Winter Stocker Grazing

Most components of fall and winter stocker budgets are uncertain at this point but it’s not too early to begin to pencil out possibilities, evaluating risk and perhaps taking actions to lock in some budget components.

Wheat pasture
Derrell Peel: Lack of Moisture Threatens Winter Grazing

Wheat pasture development and growth is likely to slow or even reverse if forecast weather conditions are realized.  This, in turn, may reduce stocker cattle demand in the coming weeks.

Derrell Peel: Meat Production Threatened With Disruption
Derrell Peel: Meat Production Threatened With Disruption

The U.S. meat industry faces unprecedented threats as COVID-19 sweeps through labor forces nationwide.  Production of beef, pork and poultry are simultaneously threatened by labor availability and processing capacity.