How Will Dairy Fare Alongside New Weight-loss Drugs?

Millions of Americans begin the new year with resolutions to improve their health and manage their weight.

According to a recent Forbes survey of 1,000 U.S. adults, 48% resolve to focus on fitness in the new year; 36% plan to improve their mental health; 34% want to lose weight; and 23% want to improve their diet this year.

What makes 2024 different, however, is that consumers now have drug options to boost their health and fitness efforts, thanks to the newfound availability of weight-loss drugs like Ozempic®, Wegovy®, and Mounjaro®.

So, where do dairy products fit into the changing picture of weight management? Phil Plourd, President of Insights at Ever.Ag, broached the subject in a recent episode of the Forecast Update Live podcast.

Plourd cited a Morgan Stanley survey of consumers using Ozempic and other weight-loss drugs that found those individuals were far less likely to eat out compared to their previous lifestyle. They reported their patronage of coffee shops and fast-food, pizza, fast-casual, and casual dining restaurants was down by more than 50% in every category. Hardest-hit were fast-food and pizza places, with more than 70% of respondents saying they were visiting both types of establishments less frequently.

The same study showed that 28% of weight-loss drug users were consuming fewer dairy products, and respondents also said they were eating 20-30% fewer calories overall.

The one bright spot: high-protein shakes. “There was a great story in the Wall Street Journal that talked about some sideline nutrition products that could really gain in popularity side-by-side with weight-loss drugs,” noted Plourd. “They mentioned high-protein shakes being a potential big winner, and some companies positioning themselves thusly.”

Similarly, the 2023 “Food and Health” study by the International Food Information Council showed the number-one-ranked eating pattern for the year was “high protein.”

Plourd noted that adoption rates for weight-loss drugs are relatively low, but rising. Morgan Stanley predicts about 24 million people, or 7% of the U.S. population, will be taking the drugs by 2035. “We’re a long ways from widespread adoption,” Plourd stated. “But the food companies are looking at this, retailers are looking at it, and I think we [in the dairy industry] should be looking at it as well, as a potential net-negative for dairy consumption.”

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• The Truth Behind Wisconsin Losing 455 Dairy Farms
• 8 Reasons Why Beef-on-Dairy Makes the Perfect Cross
• Producers Get Ansy Waiting to Sign Up for Dairy Margin Coverage