Weather

Tackling Winter Lice in Cattle

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 16:27:16 GMT

As temperatures drop and cattle begin experiencing the physiological stressors of winter, external parasites, especially lice, move from being a background nuisance to economically meaningful threats. In a recent discussion on “ DocTalk ,” Kansas State Beef Veterinarian Dr. A.J. Tarpoff outlined what practitioners need to know about lice biology, diagnosis, treatment timing and client communication. Winter-specific parasite management is critical to prevent losses that occur when herds remain untreated or undertreated.

Lice: The Dominant Winter Parasite

Lice remain the most impactful external parasite of cattle during winter months. As Tarpoff emphasizes, lice are highly species specific. Cattle lice do not infest humans, horses or other livestock.

“If your cattle have lice, don’t worry about your kids having lice going to school,” Tarpoff explains. “There are very specific cattle lice that affect our animals.”

This simple clarification can be valuable in client conversations, especially when producers worry about cross-species transmission.

Cattle host two functional groups of lice: sucking lice, which pierce the skin and feed on blood, and biting lice, which feed on skin debris and hair. Both groups spend their entire life cycle on the animal, being mostly dormant in the summer.

“Adult lice will actually hide out in different areas around the ears and eyes,” Tarpoff says. “They really don’t like hot weather, so they go into a dormant state. Now, once the cooler weather starts, that’s where they really jump-start their reproductive cycles.”

Once winter sets in, egg laying accelerates. Eggs, or nits, are cemented to hair shafts with a glue-like substance, hatch into nymphs and develop into egg-laying adults in approximately 28 to 30 days. This predictable cycle can be used to inform treatment expectations and retreatment intervals.

Clinical and Economic Consequences

By the time cattle are visibly rubbing against posts and fences, the infestation is well advanced. The clinical hallmarks of a lice infestations are:

Patchy hair loss over the neck, withers and rump
Intense apparent itchiness and restless behavior
Fence post, building and equipment damage from rubbing
Reduced performance, including decreased average daily gain (by up to 0.2 lb. per day), lower milk production and worsening body condition

“You know when you pull into the feedyard and just kind of zone out and don’t focus on anything,” Tarpoff says. “You look across the yard and all of a sudden say, ‘holy moley, everything’s up against the fence rubbing.’ It’s pretty obvious that we need to have a talk about lice.”

Industrywide, lice contribute to an estimated $125 million in annual losses, a figure driven by reduced productivity and infrastructure damage. Practitioners often struggle to quantify the latter, but any producer who has replaced a stretch of barbed wire knows the cost.

Diagnosing Infestation Before It Escalates

Waiting for obvious rubbing means the opportunity for early intervention has already passed. Tarpoff recommends a practical chute-side evaluation.

“We can part the hair on the neck, the withers, the rump and actually see the little lice,” he says. “They’re about the size of a grain of sand. We can see them scurrying around and if there’s roughly 10 lice per square inch, they definitely need to be treated.”

Fall Deworming Isn’t Enough

Many fall processing protocols include a macrocyclic lactone (pour-on or injectable) intended to clean up internal parasites after summer grazing. While these products provide some lice control, they are imperfect winter solutions. Injectable macrocyclic lactones only kill sucking lice, not biting lice. Pour-ons kill both, but residual activity rarely extends into peak winter months.

This leaves a winter window where live populations surge despite fall treatments. This is often mistaken for product failure rather than an issue of timing and louse biology.

Winter Topical Products for Active Outbreaks

For true winter control, contact-based topical insecticides are the most appropriate tools. These products require direct contact with adult lice to be effective. They do not kill eggs, making retreatment crucial. A second application in two to three weeks ensures newly hatched nymphs are eliminated.

“I see people that are have issues in their cows, and they’ll say, ‘Well, I put it on twice already, and it didn’t do anything,’” Tarpoff says. More often than not, these are issues with the treatment application not covering the entirety of the animal. “The majority of these products … don’t absorb into the bloodstream. They work on contact, and they have to come in physical contact with those lice.”

Don’t Overlook Biosecurity

Even a perfectly executed treatment protocol fails if every animal is not treated. A single untreated bull or newly purchased replacement heifer can reinfest the whole herd within weeks. Tarpoll recommends treating new arrivals upon entry and maintaining a short quarantine period until their lice load is confirmed cleared. This biosecurity step prevents chronic reinfestation cycles.

The key messages for veterinarians to reinforce with their clients are:

Winter lice require winter treatments. Fall dewormers are not a full-season solution.
Coverage matters more than chemistry. Application technique determines outcomes.
Plan for retreatment. One round rarely solves the problem.
Treat the whole herd. Biosecurity is essential for long-term control.

Preparing for Winter Calving and Breeding Success

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 12:33:29 GMT

As winter calving approaches, veterinarians and producers alike begin the ritual of assembling calving kits, checking facilities and brushing up on best practices. To help refine these preparations, Dr. Adrian Barragan, associate research professor and Extension veterinarian at Penn State University, recently shared practical, research-grounded guidance on dystocia management, postpartum risks and strategies to set cows up for breeding success on an episode of “ The Beef Podcast Show .”

His message centered on one theme: Timing and monitoring matter more than anything else.

Early, Accurate Monitoring for Calving Success

Barragan emphasizes calving involves two patients: the dam and the calf. Monitoring needs to reflect the needs of both.

“One thing that is key when it comes to the calving season is having proper monitoring of calving progress. That is what is going to determine if the calf is going to survive and how bad it’s going to be afterwards for the dam,” Barragan says. “The earlier we can identify that the cow needs assistance the better. However, if we intervene too soon, that can also have negative effects on the dams.”

Cows must be allowed to complete dilation before assistance begins. Pulling a calf before full dilation can create severe trauma to the reproductive tract, setting the dam up for a cascade of postpartum complications.

Because beef cows aren’t watched as closely as dairy cows, Barragan recommends beef operations adjust management to close the monitoring gap. Simple steps like maintaining smaller calving pens near the home site, bringing close-up cows into more observable groups and checking them at least every three hours can dramatically improve outcomes.

Once labor begins, marked by the appearance of the amniotic sac or hooves though the vulva, progress should be seen every 15 or 20 minutes. If within 30 to 60 minutes you see no progress with the animal, it’s time to move her into a chute to see what’s going on.

Postpartum Priorities

Compared with dairy herds, postpartum disease in beef cattle is rare.

“We have retained placentas, and we have metritis. However, the incidence is very very low,” Barragan says. Nationally, retained placenta and metritis together occur in only about 0.3% of beef cows.

Even so, cows identified as high risk should be monitored 24 to 48 hours postpartum, even if they appear fine immediately after delivery. During that time, animal care professionals should confirm:

The placenta is expelled within 24 hours
The cow is standing, eating and drinking normally
No early signs of downer cow syndrome appear
The calf is nursing and remains vigorous

Calves also require careful management, especially if the dam is having issues.

“I always recommend to not keep the calf with the cow, because the cow … might step on the calf and injure that animal,” Barragan advises. “You have to protect the calf. If the calf isn’t going to survive, then what’s the point of having that cow?”

Managing the Calving to Conception Transition

Once calving is wrapped up, producers quickly turn toward breeding, but Barragan stresses that cows need a true voluntary waiting period before entering any breeding program. This allows time for uterine involution, for metabolic balance to return and for the reproductive system to restart cycling. Moving cows into breeding groups too early can delay conception or cause them to fall further behind.

If a cow is coming out of a difficult calving, they might take longer to resume normal estrous cycles; these animals are often late or repeat breeders. But also be aware of any larger scale breeding issues within the herd.

“It’s one thing if one cow isn’t getting bred, but if your whole herd is taking several cycles to get bred, that’s a clue that we need to evaluate what’s going on and do some deeper diving,” Barragan says.

Even in herds with low postpartum disease rates, Barragan reminds producers to watch for cows that simply don’t bounce back. Poor appetite, sluggish behavio, or delayed return to normal mothering behaviors can signal underlying issues that could affect fertility weeks later. Early, supportive treatments including fluids, electrolytes or additional monitoring can shorten that recovery window and improve breeding performance.

Preparation, Patience and Precision

Good calving outcomes hinge on practical, attentive management. Monitoring cows often enough to catch the start of labor, resisting the urge to intervene too early and giving extra time and space to cows recovering from hard calvings all play central roles. The first 24 to 48 hours after birth remains a critical window. Careful attention to the dam’s appetite, behavior and placenta expulsion, and to the calf’s strength and nursing, creates a solid foundation for the next breeding season.

Healthy cows are the true engine of reproductive success. Whether a producer relies on bulls, AI or simple synchronization, none of these tools can overcome poor recovery, delayed cycling or undetected postpartum issues. The best outcomes come from knowing which cows need more support, allowing them time to heal and making intentional decisions. Patience and observation can lead to improved fertility, tightened calving windows and a herd that is set up well for the next cycle.

Don’t Let Winter’s Cold Open the Door to BRD

Fri, 21 Nov 2025 13:30:14 GMT

Winter weather isn’t just tough on producers — it’s tough on cattle, too.

“There are reasons why we see more BRD challenges in cold and damp conditions,” says Nathan Meyer, DVM, Ph.D., Boehringer Ingelheim (BI). “It really comes down to stress. When animals are stressed, they’re less able to fight off infections as effectively as they would under more ideal conditions.”

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) remains the costliest disease impacting U.S. beef cattle. The brisk winter months are the perfect time to reevaluate management practices to improve animal health, comfort and BRD control.

Prioritize Husbandry During Winter

Good animal husbandry is a crucial component of cold stress management.

“Muddy, cold and wet conditions can really draw heat out of an animal,” Meyer. says. “Not only does mud make it harder for cattle to stay warm, but it also increases their nutrient needs, because it takes more energy just to move around, eat and drink.”

When cattle are putting a lot of energy toward staying warm, they become more susceptible to disease challenges. Windbreaks, plenty of quality bedding and clean, dry areas can minimize the impact of the damp and cold temperatures.

Maintaining appropriate stocking density can also reduce the risk of disease spread. BRD is a communicable disease, and is easily transmitted from animal to animal. Giving animals the room they need slows down fast-spreading illness and keeps animals more comfortable.

Support Cattle Through Nutrition

Providing a balanced diet that meets or exceeds nutritional requirements is critical during extremely cold conditions. Nutritional support keeps animals warm, and also supports their overall health and immune function.

For every degree below an animal’s lower critical temperature (LCT) — the lowest temperature they can comfortably experience — their energy requirements increase by 1%. Depending upon body condition score and thickness of winter coat, cattle may have an LCT around 18 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Providing extra feed and ample bedding during a storm or cold snap will set cattle up to better handle the added stress.

Access to sufficient quantities of clean water is one critical nutritional component to keep in mind.

“Keep an eye on recharge rates, and break ice when necessary,” Meyer says. “Testing water periodically is also important to ensure there are no high levels of minerals or harmful bacteria.”

The importance of monitoring both water quantity and quality cannot be underestimated, as deficiencies in either can compromise cattle health.

Detect BRD Early for Best Treatment Outcomes

Even with the best prevention and husbandry measures in place, BRD can sometimes bypass defenses. When it does, early detection and treatment intervention is essential to minimizing long-term lung damage and production setbacks.

To minimize long-term lung damage and the production setbacks of BRD, look for early signs of illness in your cattle: depression, low appetite, abnormal respiration and high body temperature.

(Boehringer Ingelheim)

“I’m a fan of the DART acronym when it comes to identifying early signs of sick cattle,” Meyer. explains. “Depression, low Appetite, abnormal Respiration and high body Temperature are key indicators caretakers should watch for.”

Correctly identifying sick cattle within a group can require a trained and experienced eye. He encourages managers to provide routine training for employees, to help them recognize signs of illness and evaluate whether BRD treatment is needed.

“The sooner we can intervene against BRD, the more likely we are to have successful treatment,” Meyer says.

He notes that not all antibiotics are created equal, and that producers should collaborate with their veterinarians to select products tailored to their herds’ needs. Meyer recommends choosing a fast-acting, long-lasting antibiotic with broad pathogen coverage to effectively combat BRD infections.

“Working with your veterinarian to establish a health plan is vital,” Meyer summarizes. “They bring valuable insights from working with multiple operations, and have access to the latest research to help tailor effective strategies for your herd.”

5 Factors for Transitioning Beef Cattle from Fall to Winter

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 16:30:35 GMT

As temperatures drop and daylight shortens, the transition from fall to winter marks one of the most critical periods in the beef production cycle. Nutritional demands rise, environmental stressors increase, and management routines shift. This seasonal shift offers a valuable opportunity to help producers fine-tune cow condition, ensure herd health heading into calving, and preempt disease risks linked to cold stress and nutritional deficits.

The fall-to-winter period is a high-value window of time for veterinary input with key interventions being body condition assessment, forage testing, mineral management, and parasite control. Fall management planning helps ensure cattle enter winter with adequate nutrition and resilience to minimize losses and support performance.

Body Condition and Energy Demands

By late fall, cows should be entering winter at an optimal body condition score of 5 to 6 for mature cows and 6 for first-calf heifers. Once cold stress sets in, regaining lost condition becomes difficult and costly. Nutrition plans are essential for this conditioning and forage analysis is required for formulation to fit requirements. Vets and producers can work together to create a management map based on an inventory of feed resources.

Energy needs increase roughly 1% for every degree Celsius below the animal’s lower critical temperature: 0°C/32°F for cattle with a winter coat and -8°C/18°F for cattle with a heavy winter coat. This is very important when cows are thin or forage quality is low. Regular monitoring of manure consistency and cow appearance can provide early warning signs of inadequate nutrition. Small interventions in November can prevent big problems in January.

Trace Minerals and Immune Function

Trace mineral status often dips as cattle transition from green pasture to stored forages. This is particularly important as immune competence is closely tied to copper, selenium and manganese levels. Inadequate trace mineral status has been linked to increased susceptibility to respiratory disease and reduced vaccine response , particularly in young animals. Fall supplementation programs should be tailored to forage tests and regional deficiencies as mineral content can vary widely by geographic region and storage method.

Injectable trace minerals and free-choice mineral mixes can be strategically timed prewinter or precalving to support both cow and fetal immune systems. This supplementation can affect both fetal development and colostrum quality .

Reproductive Success

Fall is the ideal time to evaluate herd efficiency. Pregnancy checks allow for the identification of open cows and allow producers to market cows that will not create revenue the next year. This can save significant resources and shorten the future calving interval. These checks also help with winter nutrition planning, allowing cows to be separated by gestation stage to match energy requirements.

Post-breeding bull evaluation is also important. Assessing body condition, soundness and breeding records can reveal fertility or injury issues from the season. Bulls that underperformed or lost excessive condition may need replacement or rest before the next breeding cycle. Reviewing performance and updating genetic selections based on conception data and herd goals ensures retained bulls contribute meaningfully to productivity and long-term herd improvement.

Parasite and Disease Control

The fall-to-winter transition also marks the ideal window for parasite control. Strategic deworming in the fall can reduce overwintering larval contamination, improve feed efficiency and set cattle up well for the spring. Deworming after a hard frost can help minimize recontamination of pastures. Performing this treatment during pregnancy checks on bred females is a great way to be efficient with chute time. Consider integrating fecal egg count monitoring to confirm product efficacy and any resistance trends.

Respiratory disease remains a winter concern across production stages. Cold, damp housing and poor ventilation increase the risk of bovine respiratory disease. Focus on ventilation optimization, stocking density and vaccination review — especially for feedlot entries.

Herd Health Planning

Late fall is an efficient time to update vaccination protocols and review overall herd health performance. A focused review now can reduce clinical disease and emergency calls later in winter.

For both cow-calf and feedlot operations:

Confirm vaccination timing for respiratory and reproductive pathogens
Assess biosecurity and animal movement plans before winter consolidation
Review mortality and morbidity data to identify recurring issues

The transition from fall to winter is a pivotal management window to maintaining herd performance and health. This period offers the best opportunity to assess herd efficiency, adjust preventative health protocols, and align nutrition and reproduction strategies before environmental stress intensifies. Proactive management now ensures cattle enter winter with the condition, immunity and resources needed for sustained productivity.

Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

Tue, 27 May 2025 17:19:10 GMT

The forecast is calling for a hot and dry June, which is a stark contrast from the cool and wet weather pattern that’s been dominating. As rains continue to suffocate the southern Corn Belt and the mid-South, those areas could face higher amounts of prevent plant this year, while much of the West will turn dry and warm by next week.

Past 72 hour precipitation totals.

(Pivotal Weather )

Over Memorial Day weekend, parts of Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas saw up to 5" of rainfall. Texas also saw rain, with severe storms even producing large hail. Posts on social media showed grapefruit-sized hail pounding areas of the state.

Never seen hail this big before. In Afton, Texas now !! #txwx pic.twitter.com/tYMM7TML8n
— Pie☈☈e-Ma☈c Doucet (@PMDStormchaser) May 25, 2025

A massive 6-inch, 1.5-pound hailstone, roughly cantaloupe-sized, fell near Afton, Texas, leaving locals stunned. Witness Colt Forney captured the incredible moment! ( May25, 2025)

Have you ever seen hail this insanely huge? pic.twitter.com/efXuX9dA7j
— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) May 26, 2025

The forecast for the rest of this week shows that pattern shifting even farther south, with the Southeast seeing more than 4" of rain.

“We saw places in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota — especially the Dakotas — that picked up well over 3" of rain,” says Michael Clark of BamWX . “Now going forward, the forecast for the next seven days is a much drier outlook for those areas with the heaviest rain focused across the deep South — where they don’t need it. That includes southern Missouri, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. They don’t need rain there right now.”

Precipitation forecast over the next 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

But it’s not just the rain meteorologists are watching. The cooler temperatures are also a concern.

“This map [pictured below] shows the growing degree heat units and the anomaly, or the departure from normal, for the next 10 days,” Clark says. “You can see nobody’s really running above. We’re running quite a bit below, so we’re going to struggle to really accumulate any heating degree or growing degree days right now.”

Cooler temperatures have created a problem with growing degree units (GDUs) to end May.

(BAM Weather )

Those cooler temperatures will be short-lived, though. NOAA’s heat index forecast for the first week of June shows south Texas seeing temperatures rise above 100°F. Pockets of the Plains, Midwest, Southwest and Southeast will hit 85°F to 95°F.

Heat index forecast for the first week of June.

(NOAA )

This could be a precursor for what’s to come the remainder of June, according to Clark.

“The focus is turning to a much warmer temperature pattern this summer,” Clark says. “Our precipitation outlook for June features a risk for below-normal precipitation, and really, we might already be seeing hints of that. But it’s normal to above-normal in the rainfall department in the East and Southeast right now for the month of June.”

Precipitation outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

Temperature outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

The hot and dry forecasts aren’t new. Meteorologists have been concerned about dryness in the Western Corn Belt since winter. But Clark says the active weather pattern we’ve seen this spring could put those forecasts on a detour this summer.

“The models have had a tendency to dry this up and pull rain out of the forecast, but we keep seeing cold fronts and big, active pattern signals coming through. We do think that ends, but some persistence in the pattern overall might yield that we see a couple more chances of rain and cooler shots of air in the first half of June. Maybe that pattern shows up the second half of June into July,” Clark says.

The good news is leading into that drier and warmer spell to start June, the recent rains have helped improve the soil moisture.

Soil moisture map shows improvement in parts of the upper Midwest, South and West.

(BAM Weather)

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 17:09:56 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

Your Next Read:
Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 17:17:03 GMT

As Eric Snodgrass looks six weeks out to the end of March, he doesn’t like the weather pattern he sees shaping up for spring – more dry conditions.

Varying levels of mild to moderate drought have dogged much of the upper Midwest, West and Southwest since last fall, and the outlook is for more of the same, according to Snodgrass, a leading U.S. meteorologist.

Check out the soil moisture deficit currently in the upper Midwest.

(Eric Snodgrass)

“I’m concerned about the way the central United States and the western Corn Belt, in particular, are going to be dealing with the risk of drought building into spring,” Snodgrass told livestock producers and farmers attending the Top Producer Summit in Kansas City last week.

History shows that drought tends to beget drought. In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, Snodgrass says the spring to follow was also dry.

The current weekly U.S. Drought Monitor echoes his observations. The Monitor released last Thursday (Feb. 20) says drought is impacting 34% of the beef cattle inventory area, 27% of the dairy area and 49% of U.S. alfalfa hay production acres.

Current conditions are dry in many of the regions where beef and dairy are produced.

(U.S. Drought Monitor)

Arctic Air Is Contributing To Drought Conditions

Snodgrass spells out what usually happens in late winter to create the moisture livestock producers and farmers need for U.S. grain and livestock production.

As the jet stream moves across the Pacific Ocean, it typically splits and sweeps into the West Coast from two positions – one from the northern North Pacific Ocean and the other from the southern North Pacific Ocean, close to Hawaii. The two portions of the jet stream usually then scream across U.S. western mountain ranges, picking up moisture they then deposit in portions of the West, Southwest and Midwest before moving on to the East Coast and exiting the U.S. in Maine.

This year, the portion of the jet stream that normally comes from Hawaii has veered from its usual course and possibly even stalled. One indicator of that happening, Snodgrass says, is a drop off in ocean temperatures in the Baja of California and the Gulf of Alaska. The result is dry, arctic air has been moving into portions of the U.S.

For some parts of the U.S. the cold, arctic air has brought snow along with it. But the snow holds little moisture that would help alleviate the frozen dry soils. “We have some deep snow in areas right now, but it’s only got maybe two-tenths of an inch of liquid in it,” Snodgrass explains.

That’s bad news for livestock producers and farmers who need a full profile of soil moisture going into spring and don’t have one.

Similar concerns were voiced by Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, Inc., during the Top Producer Summit.

“If we continue bringing these cold shots of air through North America, we will have a below-normal precipitation bias [in western states] as we go forward through spring planting season,” Lerner explained during the taping of the U.S. Farm Report.

This map shows what the precipitation could look like in March. But remember, Mother Nature is unpredictable. She could change course and bring moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass)

That’s not the meteorologists’ expectation for the East and Southeast. Much of those regions have had an over-abundance of moisture recently. Lerner and Snodgrass agree those areas are likely to continue having plenty of moisture going into spring.

More Weather Trouble Brewing For Summer

If current cold conditions continue through March, which Lerner and Snodgrass anticipate will be the case, what will likely occur is a knee-jerk reaction in the atmosphere: a warming trend will start in late March or early April and build through late spring and into early summer.

“If we warm up quickly in the spring, which is a high possibility, we could end up falling behind the eight ball a little bit more on soil moisture,” Lerner says.

While some meteorologists point to this year’s La Niña as a cause of the continued move to dryer conditions, Snodgrass and Lerner say that’s not the case.

“La Niña will be gone by the time we get into mid-March,” Lerner predicts. “This La Niña hasn’t lasted long enough to really have a big footprint in the atmosphere. As we get into April, it’ll be pretty much a non-event.”

Keep An Eye On The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Lerner and Snodgrass believe a negative phase of what scientists call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) could be a primary contributor to ongoing drought and higher temperatures by April. The PDO is a long-term climate pattern that affects the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and can influence weather patterns across the globe.

While the PDO has not had what Lerner calls a “tremendous amount of impact” in past years in the U.S., it’s looking more influential for the 2025 spring and summer.

“I’m seeing some additional cooling off the West Coast of North America that may end up leading us into a greater ridge building with all the dryness that’s in the soil and that negative PDO,” Lerner says. “I’m not ready to go all the way over with [that prediction], but that’s where I’m headed.”

The Surprising Solution To Drought

If Mother Nature continues on her worrying course, Snodgrass says continued low temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska would be a signal in early summer.

“If we get into June and it’s cool there, that is telling me that the atmosphere is not moving. And if it doesn’t move, well, all of a sudden we could find ourselves in a situation in late June into July with more drought and excess heat,” Snodgrass says.

Another worrying sign he says to watch for is where the active spring weather pattern falls. If areas of Kansas and the Great Plains see an active tornado season, Snodgrass says that means the weather pattern is more favorable for rains to fall across the Midwest and West. But if tornado warnings blare across the Southeast, Snodgrass says that’s a signal drought could be a problem this summer.

There is a solution to the troubling weather patterns, he adds, one most beef and dairy producers understandably won’t welcome – a big, wet snow on the Northern Plains.

“The No. 1 thing I’m praying for right now is an April 4 blizzard. I want a foot of snow,” Snodgrass told producers and farmers, many of whom laughed.

Snodgrass laughed, too, and added, “You’ll hate me for about a week, and then love me through the rest of May.”

With More Arctic Air Set to Blast the U.S., Why This Winter Could Be Remembered for Its Extremes

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 21:42:02 GMT

After ice and blizzard conditions blasted the Midwest, South and East to start January, another round of frigid temperatures is set to blanket much of the U.S., and this time, temperatures could fall even lower than the previous round of cold.

Much of the U.S. is still seeing snow cover, with temperatures too cold to melt the recent snow. But now, we’re bracing for even colder temperatures as what’s called the “Siberian Express” is set to arrive this weekend. What exactly is the Siberian Express? Well, it gets its name from the cold air’s geographic origins. It’s when arctic air spills into the U.S., and it can have multiple sources, including Arctic Canada, Alaska, and in this case, Russia’s Siberia region, which is home to the coldest place on earth.

snow cover

(Weather Undground)

Meteorologists say the active start to January is a sign of what’s ahead.

“We’ve tried to bring some moisture back into places that have not seen it,” says Eric Sodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Conduit. “I’ve had this concern for a while about the lack of good flow in the atmosphere and what that’s meant toward building drought in some places through fall and now early winter. And I hate to say it, but nasty winters tend to give us a much better outlook for the next year. So, hey, let’s keep these things going for the rest of January and February, too.”

It’s not just the cold that’s turning heads, but it’s also the amount of snow that’s fallen since the start of the year, and it’s setting records. Take Kansas City, Mo., for example. That area has seen 13.” of snow in January, which makes it the second snowiest start to January in Kansas City history. Some parts of Arkansas saw as much as 15" of snow last week. That compares to areas that typically see snow, such as Chicago, recording little to no snowfall so far this year.

pic.twitter.com/rC9Dbh0qHE
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) January 13, 2025

The Winter of Extremes and Episodic Cold Outbreaks

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey thinks the winter of 2025 will be remembered for the extremes.

“With this pattern set up, it’s going to be too dry in the Southwest, stormy in the Northwest, and episodic cold outbreaks across the country,” he says. “Everybody remembers those because especially embedded in an otherwise relatively mild winter, you really remember those hard hitters.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

And that’s exactly what we are in for later this week. According to Rippey, the upcoming Arctic blast is one of those “episodic cold outbreaks” we typically see during La Niña, and what he describes as a re-amplification of the pattern we’ve been seeing for much of the month.

“Sunday night’s GFS model is showing this for extreme minimum temperatures over the next seven days,” says Rippey. “Bitter cold should stay out of the Deep South, but it may get a bit colder than this early next week before it gets better.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

Recent Moisture Helps Drought in Places
What about the moisture? The recent moisture is helping drought conditions in parts of the upper Midwest and some areas of the plains.

“But as you move to the south, that’s where I have concerns, that southwestern quadrant of the country, southern California, to the High Plains, like West Texas, western Kansas, western Oklahoma,” Rippey says. ”All I can say is it’s very fortunate those areas in the central and southern plains had a wet November because it doesn’t look good for the foreseeable future.”

But what about areas farther north, like Montana and the Dakotas? Lerner doesn’t expect widespread relief this winter.

“We’re getting some waves of snow to come across Montana and the Dakotas, but it’s a dry, powdery snow, and it’s really not providing high volumes of moisture,” says Drew Lerner, founder and senior agricultural meteorologist at World Weather, Inc. “This pattern will continue for the next several weeks, so we’ll put out a little bit more snow up that way. But as far as being able to get a big soaking rain type, you’re going to have to wait until spring.”

Meteorologists say one thing we are seeing that’s consistent with La Niña, is the sharp dividing line between wetter conditions and drought. And NOAA’s seasonal outlook shows that divide with below normal precipitation forecast for much of the southwest and Deep South over the next 90 days. Above normal in areas of the northwest and east.

Precip. Outlook

(NOAA)

Temp Outlook

(NOAA )

Drought Watch
Lerner thinks parts of the upper Midwest and northern Plains could see more active weather with rain into spring.

“So, I’m not too terribly concerned about the fact that we’re still seeing persistent dryness in those areas,” Lerner says. “Not all of that region will get relief when we get to the spring, but I would say probably two-thirds of that region will.”

But even with more moisture across other parts of the U.S., Snodgrass says he’s concerned about drought in other areas due to the weak La Niña.

“We tend to be wet through the Mississippi valley and east going into spring. There tends to be lots of storms, but we tend to see the drought that’s in West Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, the Sunbelt expand up toward Colorado,” Snodgrass says. “Most models want to bring dry conditions out of the southern Canadian prairie into Montana, and that’s kind of funneling toward the western Corn Belt. And I’ve based this off historical analogs looking at a lot of different years that looks something like this one. We just tended to be a bit hotter and drier.”

He says looking back, six out of 10 years that we’ve seen a similar pattern, we’ve ended up with heat and dryness in key months of July and August.

“To be honest with you, this is the first time in fall and winter that I’ve been kind of saying, ‘Hey, I think our risk is elevated for drought,’” Snodgrass says.

He says something extremely important to watch is what happens in the Gulf of Alaska.

“If between March and June, if that’s where it gets cold, the risk of drought in the Midwest goes way up. Watch that March time frame,” Snodgrass says. “I think that’s where our risk factor is going to be going forward. So I’m watching winter, but I’m more concerned about spring/summer.”

Your Next Read:
Winter Storm Wallops the U.S. With Heaviest Snowfall in a Decade, Southern States Brace for Round 2

2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

‘Moisture Opportunity’ Is On Its Way To The Plains

Tue, 15 Oct 2024 20:59:46 GMT

September was one of the driest months on record for parts of the Midwest, and October has continued the dry trend, said Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, on Tuesday’s show. He asked guest John Homenuk of Empire Weather Consulting, what shut the moisture off in the middle of the country.

“We’ve had this ridge in place since September, which we’re fortunate didn’t happen in late July and August,” Homenuk told Flory. “We’ve kind of been in this really poor cycle for moisture for several weeks.”

Homenuk said parts of the U.S. have been in a fairly weak La Nina weather pattern, which he expects will “oscillate up and down a bit” throughout this fall and into the 2024-25 winter months.

However, Homenuk does anticipate some limited moisture will start to move back into Midwest weather forecasts soon.

“For instance, late this weekend and early next week, we have a moisture opportunity coming into the Plains,” he said. “A low-pressure system could spread out of the Intermountain West into the foothills, and eventually bring some moisture to places like the Texas Panhandle, Kansas and Nebraska. That’ll be the first system to come out, and there might even be some scattered showers across parts of the Midwest early next week.”

Meteorologists anticipate weather patterns will continue to lean toward more moisture as November gets underway.

“It’ll be a slow go of it, but the feeling is that we’re through the worst of the dryness now, and we’ll start working back gradually into a more normal pattern,” Homenuk said.

Looking Ahead To Next Spring

Flory asked what kind of weather pattern farmers can anticipate going into the 2025 cropping season.

“There is some indication already on models that we’re going to split up again, between a La Nina and El Nino,” Homenuk said. “Some of the indications stay near neutral, so not a La Nina or El Nino, and some of them start actually sending us back into El Nino by spring and summer of next year. I think we need to get through the next couple of months before we really have an inclination of where it’s going to go next year.”

Flory said he’s concerned, given the weather conditions this fall, that next spring will be a dry one.

“It’s kind of common to hear people say, ‘droughts don’t start in the year that they happen. They start in the fall before.’ And I think there’s more than a few producers out there that are concerned that this drought we’ve got in the middle of the country is going to continue on into the spring of next year,” Flory explained.

Homenuk said he believes if the U.S. transitions back to an El Nino weather pattern by spring, that should be generally viewed as a good thing.

“That would reintroduce some more moisture. If we stay neutral, or we stay in a weak La Nina into the spring, then I think those lingering drought concerns could make their way into the growing season in 2025,” he added.

Weather Outlook For South America

Flory asked what kind weather South America, Brazil and Argentina in particular, will see for its growing season.

“We’re kind of into this weak La Nina scenario,” Homenuk said. “What tends to happen down there in South America is you get a little bit of a mixed bag. So, it was a slow start over the last couple of weeks, but now we’re seeing a pattern change across central Brazil, essentially Mato Grosso southward, where there’s moisture coming into the forecast over the next several weeks.”

He added that the same could likely be said for northern Argentina.

“If you look at the next 15 to 30 days, the moisture forecast is actually pretty solid. They have some ground to make up, given how dry it was before. But I think these weak La Ninas tend to be OK in those regions. It is a kind of pattern indicating that there will be some moisture around it. I think they’ve avoided the worst-case scenario, which would have been a really strong La Nina developing.”

Hear the complete conversation between Homenuk and Flory here:

U.S. Braces for a Hotter and Drier Fall as La Niña Looms

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 20:31:58 GMT

If predictions hold true, this fall could be a hotter and drier season across much of the U.S. According to the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), unusually warm days are still ahead for parts of the country during the meteorological fall, which spans from Sept. 1 to Nov. 30.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook

(NOAA)

The temperature outlook for September through November 2024 favors a warmer-than-normal season, with the greatest probabilities — exceeding 60% — expected in New England and parts of the Southwest. The West, particularly Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, is likely to experience an unusually warm September. On the opposite coast, Florida and much of New England are also trending warmer than normal. Conversely, while southwestern Alaska may see below-normal temperatures, northern Alaska is more likely to experience above-normal warmth.

La Niña, known for bringing dry, warmer-than-average conditions to the southern half of the country, is favored to develop during the September to November period, with a 66% chance of formation. Once established, there’s a 70% chance it will persist through the winter of 2024-2025. Though La Niña hasn’t officially started, signs of its arrival are reflected in NOAA’s fall weather predictions.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(NOAA)

As the weather pattern strengthens in the coming months, the U.S. might see an extended period of warmth and dryness, particularly in regions already feeling the heat.

Your Next Read: It’s Okay to Celebrate Your Wins

Protecting Cattle From Summer Heat

Thu, 23 May 2024 21:32:24 GMT

As daily temperatures begin to increase, foreshadowing the prolonged hot weather and heat stress events of the summer, now is the time to prepare facilities to protect cattle from the summer heat.

The incoming heat can negatively affect animal growth performance, fertility, and animal welfare, but taking these management precautions can help to reduce the impacts of anticipated and extreme weather conditions.

Offer plenty of clean water (Hydration is the key to success)

Cool, clean drinking water can help cattle thermoregulate in severe temperatures. Depending on the size of the cow, its age and lactation stage, and the ambient temperature, a mature cow can consume up to 30 gallons of water a day.

Plenty of clean water should be offered in multiple locations so that all animals can easily access it, including the lower-ranking cows. This can be achieved by preparing additional water troughs or containers. Water should be kept in the shade so that the temperature of the water stays cool. The location of water should be familiar to the animals before heat stress events so that it can be easily found, and they should not have to travel too far to access it.

For added support, supplement water with an electrolyte source or rumen stabilizer in their water or feed before forecasted heat stress events.

While not as helpful once the event has begun, these supplements can be used before heat stress to proactively decrease the severity on the animals.

Provide shade

During hot weather and heat stress events, animals should be provided shade to escape the sun and allow for more effective cooling. Shade can be offered in many ways, including constructed shelters, trees with large canopies, shelterbelts (thick lines of hedges or trees), or temporary shade shelters. When providing shade, it is important to consider the direction of the shade throughout the hottest parts of the day and ensure that enough shaded space is provided so that all animals can utilize it without crowding.

Avoid handling or transporting

Handling or transporting animals during hot weather should only be performed if necessary, as these activities cause additional physical stress for the cattle. For example, handling cattle during hot weather can increase body temperature by 0.5 to 3.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 to 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit).

If handling or transporting cattle is required during the summer months, it should be performed as early in the day as possible while temperatures are lower and not after 10 a.m. This may require some planning ahead for preventative health programs, such as vaccination plans and fly control, to limit handling during the hottest times. Additionally, if transporting is absolutely necessary, transport stocking densities should be decreased to 85% of capacity to ensure good ventilation, and drivers should have contingency plans in place in the case of extreme weather.

Improve air flow

Improving air flow can help the cow’s cooling process and decrease the severity of heat stress. Air exchange can be provided through mechanical means, such as ventilation systems or fans, or naturally, by allowing fresh air movement. Winter windbreaks should be removed to allow for more natural airflow.

Sprinklers in dry conditions

Sprinklers can be helpful to cool cows during hot, dry weather due to the cooling effect the cow experiences when moisture from a sprinkler evaporates from their skin. However, this method can cause an increase in relative humidity, generating other unwanted effects or impacts of heat stress, and should only be used when humidity is low.

Other considerations to take when using sprinklers include avoiding excessive use and cycling the sprinklers on and off so that the water may evaporate more efficiently.

Monitor weather

By monitoring weather patterns, we can prioritize the times that cattle may need the most support.

Evaluate heat stress events by checking incoming ambient temperature and relative humidity. Monitoring the temperature humidity index (THI) can also be beneficial in preparing for heat stress events, but measuring THI can be hard to do. For that reason, there are publicly available tables on the market that outline THI and heat stress severity based on the area’s temperature and humidity values.

Some states, such as Oklahoma, and Kansas, have publicly available Cattle Comfort Index (CCI) values from their local Mesonet services. This information is collected in real time and reflects the experience of the cow in its environmental conditions.

Identify heat stress

There are many signs of heat stress in cattle, but some of the common signs include:

Increased respiration rate
Crowding around water sources
Panting, open mouth in more severe cases
Increased water intake
Loss of appetite
Lethargy
Increased salivation
Unconsciousness, in severe cases
High-risk animals

The animals at highest risk for heat stress are young cattle, dark-hided cattle, and unhealthy cattle. Additional cattle that may be at high risk are cattle without shade, newly received, mixed lightweight cattle, or lactating cows.

By implementing these short-term planning and preparation steps, the long-term negative consequences of heat stress on cattle can be alleviated.

Dr. Kelsey Bruno-Bayliff, Ph.D., is Farm Standards & Science Coordinator, American Humane.

Note: American Humane is not to be confused with the Humane Society of the United States.

The U.S. Just Broke a 27-Week Drought Streak, But Forecasts Don't Look Promising

Fri, 03 Jun 2022 15:46:25 GMT

Less than 50% of the continental U.S. is in moderate- or D1- drought conditions for the first time since November. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor showed a slight improvement in drought conditions across the U.S., but forecasts show drought could grow over the summer months.

USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says the 27-week streak in drought conditions means the all-time record of 42 weeks during 2012/2013 still stands. However, the drought picture isn’t pretty in the West, with another streak still on the record books.

“We have edged below 50%. The national number at this point coming in at just under that 50% mark, but we still have another streak going and that is more than 40% of the country and drought. That streak has now reached 88 consecutive weeks going all the way back to late September of 2020. And that is far and away in all-time record previous record was also set during the drought of 2012 and 2013 of 68 consecutive weeks.”

(Farm Journal)

Recent rains have blanked the parts of the Plains, partially easing some drought concerns, but Rippey says the rains in the Southern Plains may not last.

“I wish I had better news on the outlook for the south-central and southwestern United States,” says Rippey. “But unfortunately, indications are that we could regrade or reverse back into a hotter, drier pattern as we move into the mid- to late summer. We have certainly seen some encouraging signs across the Southern Plains in May and even into early June. The longer-term outlooks indicate that heat and drought will continue to be a problem in the mid- to late summer.”

(Farm Journal)

Rippey says that means some of the recent improvements in the drought monitor may have been lost due to triple-digit heat, as well as strong winds. The forecast shows more heat and wind for those areas in the near-term.

“I was looking at some forecasts for the next seven days and triple-digit heat will plague much of Texas, with purple-shaded areas expecting high temperatures of 104 degrees F or greater,” says Rippey, in talking about the latest GFS weather model.

Rippey points out the latest Crop Progress report shows a stark drought picture still sitting in Texas with:

70% of Texas ranch land and pastures rated very poor to poor;
more than 40% of the cotton and grain sorghum rated very poor to poor;
and 29% of the corn and cotton rated very poor to poor.

“With the rains beginning to fall in some of those areas, there is hope we can turn things around. The plants are young. There is a chance to reverse some of the earlier problems there. But it’s going to take more rainfall. If it cuts off again, we’re not going to see things come back,” says Rippey.

“Another thing to point out is that we continue to deal with these periods of excessive heat very early in the season across the south-central United States. Even though we’ve seen rain and continue to see rain in Texas, the heat is going to come roaring back this weekend back into the triple digits,” he adds. “And that unfortunately offset some of the positive effects of the rain that has been falling in West Texas.”

Rippey says he’s not ready to say there will be a return of the 2011 growing season, where consecutive days of triple-digit heat, along with severe drought, robbed farmers of their crops. However, he is concerned about the early heat and what it could mean for overall crop yields this year in the area.

(Farm Journal)

Come On In: The Ocean Temperatures Are Hot

Tue, 01 Feb 2022 14:59:37 GMT

Last year was hot. It was so hot, 2021 now holds the record for the hottest ocean temperatures ever. That’s according to an annual study published in “ Advances in Atmospheric Sciences .”

Earth’s average land and ocean surface temperature in 2021 was 1.51 degrees °F (0.84 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average, according to officials at NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

(Farm Journal)

2021 was the 45th consecutive year since 1977 in which global temperatures ranked higher than the 20th-century average, per NOAA , providing yet another indication of the effect of climate change on the planet. High ocean-heat content can contribute to sea-level rise.

Researchers blame human activity for rising water temperature, because oceans absorb heat from the atmosphere.

“The increase in carbon emissions will lead to more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” says Matt Yarosewick, AgDay meteorologist. “If we have more of these, they almost act as a blanket. Some of the solar radiation from the sun will get reflected back into space, but the radiation that makes it to the ground will then have to deal with the greenhouse gases on the way back out.”

When the sun heats the ground, he says, the ground heats the air. The solar radiation is absorbed by the ground and is then released in the form of heat into our atmosphere.

“Some of that heat is allowed to escape through the atmosphere and back into space, while some is held in by the greenhouse gases,” Yarosewick says. “This will then cause a warming effect over time of our overall global temperature.”

Water will absorb any heat and if the global temperatures go up, then the ocean temperatures should follow that same pattern, he explains. This also causes stronger storms.

“The warmer the water, the more moisture will be allowed to evaporate and increase not only rain rates and heavy precipitation but also the ‘fuel’ for the storms increases,” Yarosewick says.

Additional NOAA weather findings for 2021 :

The average annual sea ice cover in the Arctic was approximately 4.08-million square miles — the ninth-smallest annual average cover recorded between 1979 and 2021. The last seven years (2015-2021) had an annual sea ice extent that ranked among the 10 smallest on record, according to data from the National Snow and Ice Data Centeroffsite link.
There was an above-average number of tropical cyclones around the world in 2021, with a total of 94 named storms. This value ties with 1994 as the 10th-highest number of named storms in the 41-year record.
December’s average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.49 degrees °F (0.83 of a degree C) above the 20th-century average. This value was tied with 2016 as Earth’s fifth-warmest December in 142 years

NOAA'S Winter Outlook is a Headache For Farmers Already Dealing with Drought

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:43:41 GMT

It could be a dry winter in the South and a wetter than normal winter in the North, according the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Demonstration’s (NOAA) winter forecast . With a strengthening La Nina, NOAA says the weather this winter will favor warmer and drier conditions across much of the southern tier of states, but the opposite for the North.

“With La Nina well established and expected to persist through the upcoming 2020 winter season, we anticipate the typical, cooler, wetter North, and warmer, drier South, as the most likely outcome of winter weather that the U.S. will experience this year,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

(Farm Journal)

Considering more than 45% of the continental U.S. is currently experiencing drought, the winter forecast isn’t good news for areas already parched

“We are going into a La Nina pattern, which does mean wetter and colder to our north and warmer and drier to our south,” says Martha Shulski, state climatologist, University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “98% of Nebraska is abnormally dry or worse in drought, we have some pretty significant rainfall deficits, so even if we have normal precipitation for the winter, which is our dry time of year, we’ll only make up about half of that.”

(Farm Journal)

Shulksi says Nebraska needs a wetter than normal winter to help make up for the significant moisture deficits. However, she thinks it’s unlikely La Nina’s wetter than normal pattern will hit states like Nebraska.

“We need a wetter than normal winter as well as spring to make up those really significant deficits,” she says. “There’s only about 25% of the state that has adequate soil moisture. We need to make up those deficits, and right now, it’s not looking like that’s going to happen.”

Shulksi says if you look at the drought monitor map today, the picture isn’t good for soil moisture and drought conditions. And without ample moisture this winter, she’s concerned how the drought will grow.

“Looking at the drought monitor map going into next spring, we’re likely to be at where we are now or possibly even worse going into the next growing season,” she says.

(Farm Journal)

NOAA’s says the widespread, ongoing drought currently in place across the western half of the continental U.S. is a result of the weak Southwest summer monsoon season and near-record-high temperatures. NOAA does expect drought conditions are expected to improve in the northern Rockies, Northwest, New England, Alaska and Hawaii over the coming months.

The Sudden Shift to Winter Weather May be Short-Lived

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:05:36 GMT

Harvest came to a halt in some areas seeing snow, while other farmers continued to roll on with corn. The early season October snow followed last week’s snowfall where more than 7 inches of snow fell in the Twin Cities, marking the snowiest October 20th on record for the area.

pic.twitter.com/l2Z3zy2syG
— 👣 Barefoot’n Farmer 👣 🇺🇸🚤🇺🇸 (@LouieDN) October 26, 2020

2” with 2 days of harvest left pic.twitter.com/ismYuFG7i2
— Matt Raasch (@mjpk2013) October 26, 2020

“We’ll still see a little bit of that as we head through this week, but I don’t think a repeat of last week in most locations,” says Mike Hoffman, U.S. Farm Report meteorologist.

The snow is welcome in some areas experiencing drought. That’s as Hoffman says as the weeks progress, dry pockets continue to get drier with new areas of drought starting to pop up.

“Looking at the drought monitor , boy are we getting more and more color to this thing,” he says. “The western third of the country just keeps getting drier; we do actually have a system coming for the Southwest this week, but we’re also seeing some of these pockets of drier conditions across the upper Midwest, central Mississippi Valley and on into parts of the Northeast.”

Hoffman says portions of the central Mississippi Valley will see showers along the moving front this week, with snow hitting the northwestern area. He thinks New Mexico and surrounding areas will also see rain during the middle of the week.

“Then, next weekend, we’re still looking at kind of a zonal flow, which keeps the real cold air to the north, unlike this past week, and the warm air continues in the southern states under that scenario,” he says.

(Farm Journal)

As for Hoffman’s 30-day outlook, he thinks temperatures will warm up from what many areas are experiencing the first part of this week, but the northern tier of states may stay cold.

(Farm Journal)

“I’m going below normal for the northern third of the Plains, then above normal for the East Coast, Gulf Coast and into the Southwest,” he says. “Precipitation over the next 30 days shows below normal for the Gulf Coast, most of the Southwest, and then above normal for the Central Plains, Great Lakes and also the Pacific Northwest.”

Drought Conditions Continue to Worsen

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 15:36:25 GMT

Drought conditions are continuing to grow and frozen precipitation this weekend won’t help matters. Meterologist Matt Yarosewick has the latest. Just click on the video link to watch his forecast.