Wind

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 17:09:56 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Now Is the Time to Pay Attention to the Weather Forecast: Severe Snowstorm Forecasted to Dump Multiple Feet of Snow

Fri, 05 Jan 2024 21:08:28 GMT

As the calendar flipped to the new year, Mother Nature unleashed the potential for back-to-back blasts of winter weather. From the possibility of blizzard conditions early next week, to flooding in the southeast, the impact on agriculture could be two-fold: a possible cure for drought conditions in parts of the Plains and South, but stressful for livestock.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the forecast is pointing to a very active weather winter pattern in January, which is a hallmark of El Niño.

“There’s no question about it. As I always say, you can’t blame an individual or a single storm and El Niño, but you start looking at the overall patterns, and there’s absolutely no question that when you start seeing a pattern setting up like this, a storm pipeline from the Pacific coming across the Southwest and into the Midwest or east, that is El Niño,” Rippey says.

Eric Snodgrass is a well-known ag meteorologist who’s also watching the change in potential winter weather this month. He says El Niño reached its peak at the end of December.

“It has plateaued. And what that typically means is we tend to have what we call a back-half weighted winter, which means December is usually pretty mild, not a whole lot to talk about, but once we get going into this new year, that jet stream is really going to start to become quite a bit more active,” Snodgrass says.

Active Jet Stream Set to Bring Multiple Winter Storms

The active jet stream is exactly what the U.S. is now seeing, with multiple storms lined up for the start of the year. Rippey says it’s an active storm track that starts in the South, eventually ending up along the East Coast.

“The storm that’s coming out late this week, it’s going to be a decent storm system - a decent winter storm. But it’s going to pale in comparison to the blockbuster storm that we see coming for early next week,” he says.

High Plains with current storm 53% covered in shallow layer of snow. Feet of snow on the way? pic.twitter.com/fAZzWeHurr
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) January 5, 2024

Snowfall reports from the National Weather Service (NWS) Albuquerque, New Mexico station shows impressive snowfall already falling in the Rocky Mountains. As of midday Friday, January 5, NWS reports 10 to 18 inch snowfall totals in the southern Rockies before it made its way across Kansas.

Eye-Popping Snowfall Totals Possible

However, Rippey says this first snow system isn’t the headline. Early to mid-week next week, a different significant storm will emerge from the Southwest and Four Corners region, which could bring monstrous snowfall totals.

“That storm will be going across the Central and Southern Plains Monday and reach the lower Great Lakes region by Wednesday,” Rippey says. “That system really has the potential to create a wide degree of disarray across the country.”

(Farm Journal)

The storm early next week will pack a punch with high winds, but it will also bring much needed drought relief. NOAA is warning of weather impacts that will span from Coast to Coast. They report heavy snow is likely in the higher elevation with blizzard conditions possible. The high winds are expected to hit much of the Central and Eastern U.S., with some winds exceeding 50 MPH.

“Some of them can be big snow makers through parts of the Midwest and some of them are putting down some heavy rains across the South,” Snodgrass says. “And the big picture here is that our U.S. Drought Monitor, which still shows about 50% to 55% of the land area in some form of drought, about one-third of it in the drought categories, that could really change a lot in the coming weeks.”

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. Winter arrives finally. 10 days from now mountains, West, Plains, North BURIED! pic.twitter.com/EbPLLFlB74
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) January 5, 2024

The winter storm is forecasted to bring heavy snow, which could provide relief for winter wheat country.

“We’ve already chipped away at the drought across the Great Plains,” Rippey says. “If you look at USDA’s winter wheat condition, we saw improvement from the end of November to the end of December. Kansas winter wheat jumped from 32% good to excellent at the end of November to 43% in December. Oklahoma saw a big jump from 53% to 67% good to excellent. So more moisture, more snow - that’ll be good news for winter wheat.

(Farm Journal)

While the storm system will bring much needed relief, it could also pose problems for livestock producers.

“As the storm crosses the southern Great Plains and moves into the Midwest, we’re going to have a big wind-driven snow event. So certainly, some livestock stress. And then for the Southeast, those folks where it’s not a drought situation, they could be dealing with flooding and flash flooding, as well as our first significant severe weather outbreak of the season early next week,” Rippey says.

Euro model... 😳❄️🌨️ pic.twitter.com/PqZKmP7G0W
— Darin D. Fessler ✝️ (@DDFalpha) January 5, 2024

Much Need Moisture in Areas

As the south braces for impacts of the forecasted storms, Snodgrass says that moisture is desperately needed.

“The South has been, in my opinion, on the wildest ride with moisture in the last 24 months compared to any other place on the planet at this point,” he says.

And as this El Niño pattern takes hold, Snodgrass thinks cotton country could final see some relief this winter.

“I think the best chance for recovery and moisture is going to be across the South, pockets of the Mid-South, the Southeast and in the East Coast,” Snodgrass says. “That track from Texas to South Carolina to Maine, I like it. That area is going to be getting some good moisture.”

It’s not just snow that producers will need to brace for, but temperatures are forecast to plunge with a possible Artic blast. Weather models are pointing to extremely cold and extreme Arctic air also moving in.

Still watching historic climate emergency risk from Arctic blast 📉❄️🌡️

Overnight weather model [ECMWF HRES 00Z] still shows historic Arctic blast into the Pacific Northwest and Western U.S. in 6-7 days.

Extremely cold w/potential for snowfall along California coast including… pic.twitter.com/PsNLPAccdj
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 5, 2024

The Duration of El Niño

Snodgrass says the question is how long until El Niño fades, and the impact it could have on the spring.

“If El Niño peaks right now and begins to fade throughout the rest of winter and into spring, I’ve looked at every event since 1960, and most times when that happens, we tend to do okay in the Midwest the following year in terms of precipitation. That’s not a guarantee, but you look at historically, we tend to go out of ridge riding storms, which are often the types of storms that save crops,” he says.

That scenario, however, spells trouble for key growing areas of the South this spring and summer.

“The only way you can get a ridge riding storm system, though, is to put heat and drought across the South. That’s the Cotton Belt that could be impacted negatively by that,” Snodgrass says. “That’s all speculative. But that’s all you got this time of years to base it off of those bigger picture things.”

Areas of the Country Could Still Be Dry This Spring

With the active storms to start the year, there are still pockets of the country that need much more moisture to replenish dry soils before spring.

“I’m worried about the Northern Plains,” Snodgrass says. “I’m worried about the Canadian Prairie on drought. I’m worried about the lack of snowfall we’ve had so far in parts of the upper Midwest. We need to be piling a whole lot more snow there.”

The debate of just how long El Niño will last is heating up. There’s even talk of La Nina making a return this year. There’s no certainty either way, but for now, Snodgrass says a strong shot of winter weather isn’t a bad thing.

“I’ll just tell you this, the nastiest winters we’ve ever had, have almost always given us fantastic springs and summers,” he says. “So, I hate to say it, but I’m wishing for just a terrible second half of winter so that I can talk to you next spring summer and say, ‘Hey wasn’t that terrible? But now look what we got out of it.’”

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