Weather - General

It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat

Tue, 20 May 2025 16:14:50 GMT

With the record heat across the Plains and South last week, a sudden burst of cold across the upper Midwest and the outbreak of tornadoes that tore across the country over the weekend, it’s been an active weather pattern so far this May. That trend is set to continue.

As forecasters look ahead, NOAA’s latest summer outlook points to dry conditions across much of the western U.S. as well as above-normal temperatures across the country.

Summer Pattern Takes Shape
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the U.S. has been in “atmospheric limbo” for the past six weeks. That’s been the catalyst for the weather extremes.

“Think back to the early April flooding in the Mid-South and the early May flooding in the Southern Plains. We saw a heat wave across the Northern Plains last week, so very extreme weather. But it’s shifting around,” Rippey says.

He says now we’re waiting for the arrival of the summer lock-in, a pattern that typically takes shape by Memorial Day and provides a fairly stable pattern for the summer months.

The precipitation outlook for the month of June.

(CPC )

“It’s starting to look like by the end of May into June we will see a ridge developing somewhere across the western half of the country as that begins to lock in. This is the expectation for June, which is below-normal precipitation in much of the western half of the country, possibly extending onto the High Plains. And then wet conditions will either develop or continue in the East,” says Rippey, pointing to the latest outlook from the National Weather Service.

Heat and Drought Ahead
Rippey says the outlook shows a stark difference between the East and West of the country, where the East is expected to see moisture, and the West is expected to be dry.

Summer Precipitation Outlook, which includes June, July and August

(CPC )

The outlook for summer points to warmer-than-average temperatures across the majority of the U.S.

(CPC)

“The June, July and August outlook from the National Weather Service is kind of the same picture,” Rippey says. “The climate models have been very consistent for a number of months now in showing we will have a ridge across Western North America that could lead to either drought development, drought continuation or even drought expansion across some of the Northern Plains and northwestern areas of the country.”

The summer outlook also looks to bring the heat. The latest forecast indicates the entire U.S. will likely experience above normal temperatures this summer.

Recent Rains Were Needed

Precipitation totals from the past 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

The north Central U.S. received some much-needed rain over the weekend. Nebraska and the Dakotas saw anywhere from a trace of rain to 4", but Rippey is concerned that moisture may be short-lived.

“We could trend back into a warmer, drier pattern as we move into the summer. Watch for that drought to potentially expand eastward as we move into and through the summer months,” Rippey says.

Drought Expansion

The seasonal drought outlook for summer.

(CPC )

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is also released by the NWS Climate Prediction Center, shows the expectation drought will either persist or develop during the June, July and August time frame.

“By the time we get to the end of August, this is their expectation for drought coverage. Note the expansion in places like the Dakotas, even into the Western Corn Belt. That’s where we’ll be watching because it starts intersecting some of our major crop areas where we could see significant drought during the growing season,” Rippey says.

According to the Climate Prediction Center outlook, there are conflicts when it comes to Arizona. The outlook points toward wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona, but CPC says models provide conflicting and generally weak indications. That means it’s unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 17:09:56 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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Avoiding The Calfcicle: Calving in Winter Weather

Mon, 17 Feb 2025 18:33:37 GMT

Calving season is just around the corner or has already arrived for many. Preparing in advance, particularly for those facing inclement weather , will position producers to successfully address the needs of calves and avoid “calfcicles” in frigid temperatures.

Even before delivery, evaluating calving locations and facilities is a good place to start. Areas should be clean and dry. Consider providing shelters for animals to escape the weather. However, remember that as animals congregate, there can be an increase in disease contamination and transmission. Excellent on-site facilities or the ability to transport to a veterinary clinic is essential when addressing calving problems.

Remember to discuss your calving plan with your veterinarian. Build a relationship with your veterinarian well before a 2 am emergency calving call. Due to high demand, many veterinary practices will only accept emergencies from existing clients. Your veterinarian can work with you and your team to develop protocols for handling calving issues, especially during the cold.

At calving, heifers that labor in Stage 2 of parturition for longer than an hour, and cows that labor longer than 30 minutes, should be examined immediately. Be certain that calving equipment is clean, functional, and readily accessible. Your veterinarian can also help you develop essentials for a calving kit with critical items and medications.

Following delivery, the goal is to see the calf up and nursing as soon as possible. Delays in a calf receiving colostrum have both short and long-term impact on the immune system and in many cases set calves up for failure. Ideally, a calf should receive colostrum within the first two hours of life. Administering colostrum to calves without a suckle reflex using an esophageal feeder should be done with extreme caution due to the increased risk of aspiration pneumonia. Milking the dam or maintaining a supply of frozen colostrum are the best options for colostrum replacement.

Although recent arrivals are potentially most susceptible, even older, sick calves fail to tolerate extreme temperatures. Calves should be evaluated at least daily for signs of illness. The best way to monitor a calf’s temperature is with a rectal thermometer. Inexpensive digital thermometers work well and make it easy to evaluate progress when warming the calf is needed. If a calf’s temperature falls below 100 degrees F, gradually raise that temperature. Bring the calf indoors and out of the elements if needed. When used appropriately, warm water baths, blankets, and warming boxes are all options to rewarm a calf.

Be careful not to damage the skin of the animal by either rubbing too vigorously or placing the animal close to heaters. Additionally, if the calf is brand new, do not wash off the odor of amniotic fluid. This helps prevent rejection by the dam. Treatment of “calfcicles” often goes well beyond just warming.

Evaluating and correcting the underlying cause of a calf’s low temperature is key, especially if there is an infectious agent, such as those that can cause diarrhea, contributing to the condition. Oral or intravenous fluids, as advised by a veterinarian, can assist in warming and addressing internal fluid deficits. The metabolic state, including glucose levels and acid-base balances, should be considered. Medications to treat symptoms and nutrition for calves should not be overlooked. Intensive care of some calves and veterinary hospitalization may be needed depending on the value of the animal.

Early detection and interventions of frozen “calfcicles,” along with working with your veterinarian to develop protocols before calving season, can reduce stress and lead to more successful outcomes during calving season.

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With More Arctic Air Set to Blast the U.S., Why This Winter Could Be Remembered for Its Extremes

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 21:42:02 GMT

After ice and blizzard conditions blasted the Midwest, South and East to start January, another round of frigid temperatures is set to blanket much of the U.S., and this time, temperatures could fall even lower than the previous round of cold.

Much of the U.S. is still seeing snow cover, with temperatures too cold to melt the recent snow. But now, we’re bracing for even colder temperatures as what’s called the “Siberian Express” is set to arrive this weekend. What exactly is the Siberian Express? Well, it gets its name from the cold air’s geographic origins. It’s when arctic air spills into the U.S., and it can have multiple sources, including Arctic Canada, Alaska, and in this case, Russia’s Siberia region, which is home to the coldest place on earth.

snow cover

(Weather Undground)

Meteorologists say the active start to January is a sign of what’s ahead.

“We’ve tried to bring some moisture back into places that have not seen it,” says Eric Sodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Conduit. “I’ve had this concern for a while about the lack of good flow in the atmosphere and what that’s meant toward building drought in some places through fall and now early winter. And I hate to say it, but nasty winters tend to give us a much better outlook for the next year. So, hey, let’s keep these things going for the rest of January and February, too.”

It’s not just the cold that’s turning heads, but it’s also the amount of snow that’s fallen since the start of the year, and it’s setting records. Take Kansas City, Mo., for example. That area has seen 13.” of snow in January, which makes it the second snowiest start to January in Kansas City history. Some parts of Arkansas saw as much as 15" of snow last week. That compares to areas that typically see snow, such as Chicago, recording little to no snowfall so far this year.

pic.twitter.com/rC9Dbh0qHE
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) January 13, 2025

The Winter of Extremes and Episodic Cold Outbreaks

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey thinks the winter of 2025 will be remembered for the extremes.

“With this pattern set up, it’s going to be too dry in the Southwest, stormy in the Northwest, and episodic cold outbreaks across the country,” he says. “Everybody remembers those because especially embedded in an otherwise relatively mild winter, you really remember those hard hitters.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

And that’s exactly what we are in for later this week. According to Rippey, the upcoming Arctic blast is one of those “episodic cold outbreaks” we typically see during La Niña, and what he describes as a re-amplification of the pattern we’ve been seeing for much of the month.

“Sunday night’s GFS model is showing this for extreme minimum temperatures over the next seven days,” says Rippey. “Bitter cold should stay out of the Deep South, but it may get a bit colder than this early next week before it gets better.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

Recent Moisture Helps Drought in Places
What about the moisture? The recent moisture is helping drought conditions in parts of the upper Midwest and some areas of the plains.

“But as you move to the south, that’s where I have concerns, that southwestern quadrant of the country, southern California, to the High Plains, like West Texas, western Kansas, western Oklahoma,” Rippey says. ”All I can say is it’s very fortunate those areas in the central and southern plains had a wet November because it doesn’t look good for the foreseeable future.”

But what about areas farther north, like Montana and the Dakotas? Lerner doesn’t expect widespread relief this winter.

“We’re getting some waves of snow to come across Montana and the Dakotas, but it’s a dry, powdery snow, and it’s really not providing high volumes of moisture,” says Drew Lerner, founder and senior agricultural meteorologist at World Weather, Inc. “This pattern will continue for the next several weeks, so we’ll put out a little bit more snow up that way. But as far as being able to get a big soaking rain type, you’re going to have to wait until spring.”

Meteorologists say one thing we are seeing that’s consistent with La Niña, is the sharp dividing line between wetter conditions and drought. And NOAA’s seasonal outlook shows that divide with below normal precipitation forecast for much of the southwest and Deep South over the next 90 days. Above normal in areas of the northwest and east.

Precip. Outlook

(NOAA)

Temp Outlook

(NOAA )

Drought Watch
Lerner thinks parts of the upper Midwest and northern Plains could see more active weather with rain into spring.

“So, I’m not too terribly concerned about the fact that we’re still seeing persistent dryness in those areas,” Lerner says. “Not all of that region will get relief when we get to the spring, but I would say probably two-thirds of that region will.”

But even with more moisture across other parts of the U.S., Snodgrass says he’s concerned about drought in other areas due to the weak La Niña.

“We tend to be wet through the Mississippi valley and east going into spring. There tends to be lots of storms, but we tend to see the drought that’s in West Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, the Sunbelt expand up toward Colorado,” Snodgrass says. “Most models want to bring dry conditions out of the southern Canadian prairie into Montana, and that’s kind of funneling toward the western Corn Belt. And I’ve based this off historical analogs looking at a lot of different years that looks something like this one. We just tended to be a bit hotter and drier.”

He says looking back, six out of 10 years that we’ve seen a similar pattern, we’ve ended up with heat and dryness in key months of July and August.

“To be honest with you, this is the first time in fall and winter that I’ve been kind of saying, ‘Hey, I think our risk is elevated for drought,’” Snodgrass says.

He says something extremely important to watch is what happens in the Gulf of Alaska.

“If between March and June, if that’s where it gets cold, the risk of drought in the Midwest goes way up. Watch that March time frame,” Snodgrass says. “I think that’s where our risk factor is going to be going forward. So I’m watching winter, but I’m more concerned about spring/summer.”

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U.S. Braces for a Hotter and Drier Fall as La Niña Looms

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 20:31:58 GMT

If predictions hold true, this fall could be a hotter and drier season across much of the U.S. According to the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), unusually warm days are still ahead for parts of the country during the meteorological fall, which spans from Sept. 1 to Nov. 30.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook

(NOAA)

The temperature outlook for September through November 2024 favors a warmer-than-normal season, with the greatest probabilities — exceeding 60% — expected in New England and parts of the Southwest. The West, particularly Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, is likely to experience an unusually warm September. On the opposite coast, Florida and much of New England are also trending warmer than normal. Conversely, while southwestern Alaska may see below-normal temperatures, northern Alaska is more likely to experience above-normal warmth.

La Niña, known for bringing dry, warmer-than-average conditions to the southern half of the country, is favored to develop during the September to November period, with a 66% chance of formation. Once established, there’s a 70% chance it will persist through the winter of 2024-2025. Though La Niña hasn’t officially started, signs of its arrival are reflected in NOAA’s fall weather predictions.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(NOAA)

As the weather pattern strengthens in the coming months, the U.S. might see an extended period of warmth and dryness, particularly in regions already feeling the heat.

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Are You Ready For the Polar Plunge? Some Areas Could See Temperatures Plummet to Negative 40 Degrees

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 20:12:40 GMT

There’s only one way to describe the cold taking hold of the U.S. right now.

“It’s going to be nasty,” says Drew Lerner, an agricultural meteorologist and founder of World Weather. “If you are out in the northwestern Great Plains, it is going to be unbearable.”

Lerner says as snow barrels across the upper Midwest, the cold is creeping into the picture. By this weekend, the frigid temperatures will blanket much of the U.S., but the western Great Plains will be in the bullseye of the cold.

“We are going to see temperatures drop to minus 47 in Montana. Temperatures in the negative 30s and negative 20s will occur in the rest of Montana, as well as in the western parts of the Dakotas, and southward into a part of Wyoming and also western Nebraska.

Those frigid temperatures are for the actual temperature, not even how cold it will be when the wind chill is factored in. Lerner says considering how cold it’s going to be, he thinks temperature records will be broken.

“Not only in the northern Great Plains, there may be a couple of spots in the Central Plains,” say Lerner. “But mostly the northern Plains and into Canada will see records. In western Canada’s prairies, we will probably see at least a couple of locations get down to minus 50 or minus 49, somewhere in there. So, yes, there will be record cold. Now, for the Midwest, probably not so much. But it’ll be cold enough it won’t matter.”

(Farm Journal)

Lerner says in parts of the upper Midwest and Red River Basin, temperatures will still drop into the negative teens.

Dangerous for Livestock

It’s Montana and portions of the northern Great Plains that are smashing records with this cold. With minus 30 to minus 40 degree forecasts in some areas, it’s the vicious swing in the temperatures that is what makes the weather such a threat to livestock.

“From a livestock perspective, some of these temperatures are just going to be brutal,” says Lerner. “The animals in Montana have not been adequately hardened against the winter weather because it’s been so warm. They’ve had 50- and even some 60-degree temperatures in the past couple of weeks.”

From 40 degrees above zero earlier this week to now a 40-degree below zero forecast for the coming days, Lerner says it’s dangerous for livestock.

“The situation is going to be stressful for the animals. There might be some reduction in milk production for the dairy areas, and then we’ve got a little potential for some weight-gain concerns in beef cattle country. That might be an issue,” says Lerner. “And of course, in the hogs’ area, we probably will have some stress. I just don’t think there’s going to be as much of a potential for a big issue there.”

Little Snow Cover Puts Winter Wheat at Risk

From cattle to crops, winter wheat may be exposed to the cold. Lerner doesn’t expect any major problems with damage, but he says what makes the wheat crop at such risk is the fact there’s little to no snow cover in that part of the Great Plains.

“I don’t think there’s going to be a widespread problem. But in some areas with what little snow is going to be on the ground, the potential is still there that there could be damage done to the crop,” says Lerner.

(Farm Journal)

Stratospheric Warming Causing the Polar Plunge

As much of the U.S. braces for the cold, the positive in the forecast is Lerner thinks the arctic air will be fairly short-lived.

“The whole reason for this event is due to stratospheric warming that took place in late December,” he says. “Stratospheric warming is literally warming that occurs in the stratosphere, that is outside of where we live and outside of where the weather lives.”

The weather lives in the troposphere, which is the layer below the stratosphere. Lerner explains that when the stratosphere turns warmer, it expands that layer in the atmosphere and puts pressure on the troposphere.

“That forces cold air that’s aloft down to the surface. And then it gets spread out from the Arctic,” Lerner explains.

(Farm Journal)

At the same time, El Nino is helping drive moisture up from the South, which is causing the severe storms the U.S. saw in areas from the Southwest to the East Coast this week.

As Lerner looks ahead, he’s not only concerned about this week’s cold in the Great Plains, but the fact the northern Great Plains may not see much moisture this winter.

“We will continue to perpetuate storms periodically across the southern U.S. into maybe the lower part of the Midwest and into the Southeast,” says Lerner. “But as far as getting big storms occurring in the western Corn Belt of the northern Great Plains or even the Central Plains that’s going to be a little bit harder to come by.”

July Farm Country Forecast: Hot Like a Firecracker

Thu, 14 Jul 2022 20:42:05 GMT

Unfortunately, the heat, humidity and dry conditions of early summer look to extend into the next few months.

Widespread moderate drought and abnormal dryness continued to form and expand across a large swath of the eastern U.S. this week, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor . In addition, a few areas of severe drought are expanding.

Spotty rain and storms occurred across the East, but in areas that missed out on heavy rainfall, high temperatures, browning lawns, and curling corn signaled that rapid drying was taking place.

(Farm Journal)

Watch AgDay’s Weather Forecast for July and beyond:

For July, Matt Yarosewick, AgDay meteorologist, says to expect above-normal temperatures over most of the lower 48 states, from parts of the central and southern Rockies down through the Southwest through much of Texas and the Gulf Coast.

“Then if we look at the precipitation through July, expect drought to keep growing east of really Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma up into the Midwest parts and into of the Corn Belt,” he says.

For August, September and October, Yarosewick says most of the country will see above or well-above normal temperatures.

(Farm Journal)

In terms of precipitation, he says the July conditions of below-normal showers and storms will continue through early fall.

(Farm Journal)

“It will be very, very dry right in the center of the country and even back into the northern Plains and Northern Rockies,” he says. “That could really amplify the drought, especially as we head all the way through this harvest season. As we get closer to harvest, things are going to really start to dry out, unfortunately.”

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook shows soil moisture has decreased considerably across the Mississippi Valley and central Corn Belt, increasing vulnerability to short-term rapid drought development through July.

Given the forecasts favoring above-average temperatures, drought developing in this region would be favored to persist through the end of September, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

(Farm Journal)

Read More

Dry Weather Status in 4 Maps: Could We See a Flash Drought?

Summer Solstice Sparks Beginning of Flash Drought in the Midwest

Third Year of La Niña on the Horizon as Drought Continues in the Plains

True Grit: A Tribute to Ranchers Who Weathered the Extremes This Week

Fri, 19 Feb 2021 20:52:20 GMT

The record cold temperatures and extreme weather had a major impact on ranchers across the country, but through it all, the men and women showed what the true definition of a rancher is.

pic.twitter.com/IAbxf5ArqA
— Mary Marsh Heigele (@ksualmondfarmer) February 17, 2021

The work of a rancher often goes untold. Cowboys and cowgirls wearing their work on their sleeves, but not always on their face. It’s hard work that often goes untold, but work you are often born to do.

Cold weather near Broadwater, Nebraska. pic.twitter.com/TdC4O9gcp8
— Paul Burgener (@PaulBurgener) February 18, 2021

Braving the extreme weather, enduring the frigid temperatures this week, putting your livestock before you. It’s a livelihood maybe you chose. Maybe it’s one you were born into, but no matter the path you took to get here, it’s a responsibility you don’t take lightly.

pic.twitter.com/MjY6OGWEts
— amber🌾 (@thegypsysroad) February 17, 2021

This week, you showed the true grit or a rancher. It didn’t matter the time of day, or night. Whether it was 3 in the morning, or 3 in the afternoon, you were there to make sure those newborn calves stayed warm, and in many cases, saving their lives, sometimes, there was nothing more you could do.

Bundled up! Was -6’... warmed to 18’ today here in MO! pic.twitter.com/ipqI1CCaYT
— Janet Crafton Creek (@JanetCrafton) February 17, 2021

It was a constant battle. Breaking ice so your livestock had water, checking on your cows at all hours, placing the priority on them. It’s each of you who put in way more than a 40 hour week, knowing just what had to be done to put your livestock first. Sleep may have been rare and sporadic this week. And the bitter cold that bit through your clothing reminded you just how tough of a career this really is. But you put in the work; work that not just anyone could do.

NOAA'S Winter Outlook is a Headache For Farmers Already Dealing with Drought

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:43:41 GMT

It could be a dry winter in the South and a wetter than normal winter in the North, according the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Demonstration’s (NOAA) winter forecast . With a strengthening La Nina, NOAA says the weather this winter will favor warmer and drier conditions across much of the southern tier of states, but the opposite for the North.

“With La Nina well established and expected to persist through the upcoming 2020 winter season, we anticipate the typical, cooler, wetter North, and warmer, drier South, as the most likely outcome of winter weather that the U.S. will experience this year,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

(Farm Journal)

Considering more than 45% of the continental U.S. is currently experiencing drought, the winter forecast isn’t good news for areas already parched

“We are going into a La Nina pattern, which does mean wetter and colder to our north and warmer and drier to our south,” says Martha Shulski, state climatologist, University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “98% of Nebraska is abnormally dry or worse in drought, we have some pretty significant rainfall deficits, so even if we have normal precipitation for the winter, which is our dry time of year, we’ll only make up about half of that.”

(Farm Journal)

Shulksi says Nebraska needs a wetter than normal winter to help make up for the significant moisture deficits. However, she thinks it’s unlikely La Nina’s wetter than normal pattern will hit states like Nebraska.

“We need a wetter than normal winter as well as spring to make up those really significant deficits,” she says. “There’s only about 25% of the state that has adequate soil moisture. We need to make up those deficits, and right now, it’s not looking like that’s going to happen.”

Shulksi says if you look at the drought monitor map today, the picture isn’t good for soil moisture and drought conditions. And without ample moisture this winter, she’s concerned how the drought will grow.

“Looking at the drought monitor map going into next spring, we’re likely to be at where we are now or possibly even worse going into the next growing season,” she says.

(Farm Journal)

NOAA’s says the widespread, ongoing drought currently in place across the western half of the continental U.S. is a result of the weak Southwest summer monsoon season and near-record-high temperatures. NOAA does expect drought conditions are expected to improve in the northern Rockies, Northwest, New England, Alaska and Hawaii over the coming months.

The Sudden Shift to Winter Weather May be Short-Lived

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:05:36 GMT

Harvest came to a halt in some areas seeing snow, while other farmers continued to roll on with corn. The early season October snow followed last week’s snowfall where more than 7 inches of snow fell in the Twin Cities, marking the snowiest October 20th on record for the area.

pic.twitter.com/l2Z3zy2syG
— 👣 Barefoot’n Farmer 👣 🇺🇸🚤🇺🇸 (@LouieDN) October 26, 2020

2” with 2 days of harvest left pic.twitter.com/ismYuFG7i2
— Matt Raasch (@mjpk2013) October 26, 2020

“We’ll still see a little bit of that as we head through this week, but I don’t think a repeat of last week in most locations,” says Mike Hoffman, U.S. Farm Report meteorologist.

The snow is welcome in some areas experiencing drought. That’s as Hoffman says as the weeks progress, dry pockets continue to get drier with new areas of drought starting to pop up.

“Looking at the drought monitor , boy are we getting more and more color to this thing,” he says. “The western third of the country just keeps getting drier; we do actually have a system coming for the Southwest this week, but we’re also seeing some of these pockets of drier conditions across the upper Midwest, central Mississippi Valley and on into parts of the Northeast.”

Hoffman says portions of the central Mississippi Valley will see showers along the moving front this week, with snow hitting the northwestern area. He thinks New Mexico and surrounding areas will also see rain during the middle of the week.

“Then, next weekend, we’re still looking at kind of a zonal flow, which keeps the real cold air to the north, unlike this past week, and the warm air continues in the southern states under that scenario,” he says.

(Farm Journal)

As for Hoffman’s 30-day outlook, he thinks temperatures will warm up from what many areas are experiencing the first part of this week, but the northern tier of states may stay cold.

(Farm Journal)

“I’m going below normal for the northern third of the Plains, then above normal for the East Coast, Gulf Coast and into the Southwest,” he says. “Precipitation over the next 30 days shows below normal for the Gulf Coast, most of the Southwest, and then above normal for the Central Plains, Great Lakes and also the Pacific Northwest.”

2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

As 2024 comes to an end, roughly 70% of the nation is experiencing some level of drought and dryness.

Recent precipitation led to small improvements in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas northeast to the Central Appalachians. Since its peak in September, the drought affecting the Central Appalachians and Upper Ohio Valley has steadily improved.

In the northeast, near to above-normal precipitation in the past 30 days means drought conditions have improved.

Across the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas, precipitation deficits continue to increase.

December is typically a drier time of year for the Upper Midwest and Northern to Central Great Plains.

Since the beginning of October, precipitation has generally averaged below normal across the Central Rockies, Great Basin, Southwest and southern California.

Northwest California and much of the Pacific Northwest have experienced wetter-than-normal conditions.

When it comes to severe or extreme drought, parts of the Northern Plains, the Southwest and the Tennessee Valley fall in those categories. Portions of the Midwest are now considered D1/moderate drought, and one-fifth of Indiana is in D2/severe drought.

Looking at various crop production areas, the following are currently affected by drought:

Barley, 35%
Corn, 54%
Cotton, 18%
Durum wheat, 70%
Peanut, 29%
Rice, 15%
Sorghum, 31%
Soybean, 47%
Spring wheat, 33%
Sugarbeet, 48%
Sunflower, 78%
Winter wheat, 27%

While the drought monitor looks longer term, NASA’s root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across the Corn Belt and Southwest.

The Dec. 23, 2024, root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across parts of the Corn Belt and Southwest.

(NASA)

Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist at Conduit Ag, says the current La Nina is weak and fading, but it continues to influence weather patterns, which is sending warning signs for spring.

Snodgrass says we’re missing one important component in the atmosphere — the subtropical jet stream, which comes from Hawaii.

“We have the polar jet in place that will drive really cold air into the New Year, especially into the eastern two-thirds of the country, really cold air for probably a while,” Snodgrass says. “Until we crank the jet stream out of the Southwest, it’s hard to return a lot of moisture and break the fear of drought spreading from Mexico or from the western High Plains, which I think is where it’s going to come from next year.”

Snodgrass is worried about drought for two reasons:

Drought conditions are developing in Mexico, the western Plains, the High Plains and all the way up to Canada.
In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, the spring to follow was also dry. That causes concern for a big chunk of the Plains and into the Midwest.

Snodgrass says the best opportunity for a pattern shift would be if La Nina breaks down in the next few weeks and transitions to a more neutral pattern heading into spring.

Eric Snodgrass is on the agenda for Top Producer Summit in February. Register today!

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