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Updates to USDA’s Meat Balance Sheets

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:42:19 GMT

USDA raised its beef production forecast for 2024, with higher expected steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting reduced cow kills. USDA still forecasts beef production will decline 1.2% from last year. The beef export forecast for this year was raised due to “stronger-than-expected demand in a number of key markets.” USDA now projects an average cash steer price of $186.86, up $2.85 from last month and $11.32 above year-ago.

For 2025, USDA raised beef production, though it is still expected to fall another 4.5% from this year. The beef export outlook was unchanged from last month but expected to plunge 14.0% from this year. USDA raised the projected average cash steer price by $2.00 from last month to $191.00.

USDA raised its pork production forecast amid higher projected weights during the second half of this year. Pork production is now seen increasing 3.1% from last year. The export outlook was cut based on recent trade data, though shipments are still expected to climb 6.2% from last year. USDA cut its average cash hog price forecast by $2.09 from last month to $59.13, which would still be up 54 cents from last year.

For 2025, USDA raised the pork production outlook, which is now expected to increase another 1.5% from this year. The export outlook was unchanged, though shipments are expected to expand another 5.1%. USDA cut its 2025 average cash price projection by $1.00 from last month to $59.00.

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Michigan to Pay Farmers for H5N1 Research Assistance

Thu, 20 Jun 2024 14:25:59 GMT

Michigan will offer dairies with H5N1 up to $28,000 to work with federal and state government agencies to investigate how the virus got onto their operations, Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development Director Tim Boring said. Federal and state officials are researching several aspects of how H5N1 spreads, including the possibility of respiratory transmission among animals and prior infection of farm workers, in an attempt to curb further outbreaks among animals and humans.

Michigan’s ag department will provide the grant money for to up to 20 farms from its emergency response funds, Boring said. The goal is to help with losses associated with sick animals and to cover the costs of farmers and their staff working with scientists, he added.

Farmers would need to work with the state agriculture department and USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service’s Veterinary Services (APHIS) to complete epidemiological investigations on their farms.

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USDA Launching New Dairy Compensation for Milk Losses From H5N1

Fri, 24 May 2024 13:55:12 GMT

USDA is launching a new initiative to compensate dairy farmers for milk losses caused by H5N1,marking potentially the largest economic aid for the dairy industry to date. Dairy farmers with H5N1-infected cows will be compensated for their milk losses. Payments will be retroactive and calculated on a per-cow basis, considering the loss of milk production and prices in the preceding month.

USDA will spend a few weeks designing the program before accepting applications.

The compensation is significant for dairy farmers, potentially up to $250,000 a week for a farm with 5,000 cows, equating to about $50 per cow. The H5N1 virus can lead to a 20% drop in milk production for two to three weeks, impacting about 10% of cattle in affected herds.

Like programs for poultry farms, this indemnity initiative aims to encourage farmers to report cases and take samples for government tracking. USDA’s emergency assistance program will fund the reimbursements, covering losses from weather events and diseases.

USDA is also extending funding to dairy farmers whose herds have not tested positive for H5N1. This includes reimbursements for veterinary and shipping costs for testing and up to $1,500 for developing and implementing biosecurity plans.

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States Restrict Cattle Movement From Those With BIAV

Thu, 11 Apr 2024 21:29:28 GMT

In an effort to prevent domestic cattle from being exposed to Bovine Influenza A Virus (BIAV), 17 states have restricted cattle imports from states where the virus has infected dairy cows. Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Utah and West Virginia have blocked cattle movement from Texas, Kansas, New Mexico, Ohio, Michigan and Idaho, where BIAV has been confirmed by USDA.

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) will not be issuing federal quarantine orders at this time, nor is the agency recommending any state quarantines or official hold orders on cattle. “However, we strongly recommend minimizing movement of cattle as much as possible, with special attention to evaluating risk and factoring that risk into movement decisions. Do not move sick or exposed animals,” APHIS previously noted.

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Farm Income Forecast to Plunge Further in 2024

Thu, 08 Feb 2024 14:39:33 GMT

USDA’s initial forecast calls for net farm income to plunge $39.8 million (25.5%) to $116.1 billion in 2024. This follows a decrease of $29.7 billion (16.0%) from to $155.9 billion in 2023. After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to drop $43.1 billion (27.1%) in 2024. With this expected decline, net farm income would be 1.7% below its 20-year average (2003–22) and 40.9% below the record high in 2022 in inflation-adjusted dollars.

Net cash farm income is forecast at $121.7 billion in 2024, a decline of $38.7 billion (24.1%). This follows a decrease of $41.8 billion (20.7%) last year. When adjusted for inflation, 2024 net cash farm income is forecast to fall $42.2 billion (25.8%) from 2023, and expected to be 13.7% below its 2003–22 average and 43.2% below the record high in 2022.

Cash receipts from the sale of agricultural commodities are forecast to decrease $21.2 billion (4.2%) to $485.5 billion in 2024. Total crop receipts are expected to decline $16.7 billion (6.3%), led by lower receipts for corn and soybeans. Total animal/animal product receipts are expected to drop $4.6 billion (1.9%), following declines in receipts for eggs, turkeys, cattle/calves and milk.

Direct government payments are forecast to fall $1.9 billion (15.9%) to $10.2 billion in 2024, largely because of lower supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance relative to 2023.

Farm sector equity is expected to increase by 4.7% to $3.74 trillion in nominal terms. Farm sector debt is expected to increase 5.2% to $547.6 billion. Debt-to-asset levels for the sector are forecast to worsen slightly from 12.73% in 2023 to 12.78% this year.

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USDA Announces Livestock Relief Program

Fri, 01 Apr 2022 12:31:31 GMT

USDA announced that ranchers who have an approved 2021 Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) application would soon begin receiving emergency relief payments for increases in additional feed costs in 2021 through the Farm Service Agency’s (FSA) new Emergency Livestock Relief Program (ELRP). Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said phase one of the program would use LFP data to allow USDA to distribute payments within days. Producers are not required to apply for payment.

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Phase one ELRP payments will equal the eligible livestock producer’s gross 2021 LFP calculated payment multiplied by a payment percentage, to reach a reasonable approximation of increased supplemental feed costs for eligible livestock producers in 2021. The ELRP payment percentage will be 90% for historically underserved producers, including beginning, limited resource and veteran farmers and ranchers, and 75% for all other producers. These payments will be subject to a payment limitation. Payments to eligible producers through phase one of ELRP are estimated to total more than $577 million.

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