Updates to USDA’s Meat Balance Sheets

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:42:19 GMT

USDA raised its beef production forecast for 2024, with higher expected steer and heifer slaughter more than offsetting reduced cow kills. USDA still forecasts beef production will decline 1.2% from last year. The beef export forecast for this year was raised due to “stronger-than-expected demand in a number of key markets.” USDA now projects an average cash steer price of $186.86, up $2.85 from last month and $11.32 above year-ago.

For 2025, USDA raised beef production, though it is still expected to fall another 4.5% from this year. The beef export outlook was unchanged from last month but expected to plunge 14.0% from this year. USDA raised the projected average cash steer price by $2.00 from last month to $191.00.

USDA raised its pork production forecast amid higher projected weights during the second half of this year. Pork production is now seen increasing 3.1% from last year. The export outlook was cut based on recent trade data, though shipments are still expected to climb 6.2% from last year. USDA cut its average cash hog price forecast by $2.09 from last month to $59.13, which would still be up 54 cents from last year.

For 2025, USDA raised the pork production outlook, which is now expected to increase another 1.5% from this year. The export outlook was unchanged, though shipments are expected to expand another 5.1%. USDA cut its 2025 average cash price projection by $1.00 from last month to $59.00.

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Updates to USDA’s Meat Balance Sheets