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Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 17:09:56 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

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Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Double Trouble from Flooding and H5N1 hits Some Iowa Farms

Wed, 26 Jun 2024 13:17:15 GMT

Active flooding is still underway in parts of Iowa due to the more than 15 inches of rain that fell on parts of the state, particularly the northwest region, over the weekend, according to Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig.

“There were folks literally being rescued off of rooftops and flown out of the flooded areas,” Naig told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory on Tuesday. “After a couple of days, we will be able to come in and start to get a sense of what the enormity of what’s happened is and the size of the impact on the ag landscape.”

The devastation led to a disaster proclamation from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and the evacuation of thousands of Iowa residents from the area.

Naig said when he talked with Reynolds early Tuesday morning, she described the damage from the rains and flooding as “extensive.” The flooding is still underway, with rivers in north-central Iowa now starting to crest, according to the National Water Prediction Service.

Naig said state officials won’t have a full sense of the crop damage or number of livestock lost in the region until the flood waters recede.

“This was already a wet part of the state, where there were some challenges around planting and replanting. They’ve just been inundated with rain throughout the spring,” Naig said.

“What we’re hearing about, certainly, is damaged and destroyed equipment. There are livestock facilities that folks are having trouble getting feed to because of washed-out roads, and there are power outages and water outages. These are just some of the things that are really challenging.”

Added Stress On Dairies
For dairy producers in northwest Iowa, the floods arrived on top of challenges they already faced from dealing with cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) or efforts to prevent the occurrence of the disease.

“Unfortunately, a lot of our cases are in dairies up in that area,” Naig said. “Think of the added stress that those folks are experiencing right now.”

Naig said, in total, Iowa has confirmed 11 dairies and three poultry sites where H5N1 has been found.

“Don’t be surprised if you continue to hear about some additional cases in the state of Iowa, because here’s the point – we’re looking for it,” Naig said. “Our farmers are testing. Turns out, when you look for it, you can find it. I think this is a little wider spread than maybe what is just being confirmed.”

Naig said he commends the Iowa dairy industry for being proactive in reporting any positive cases. When cases are confirmed, he said the state can bring in a USDA epidemiological strike team to look for clues to how H5N1 is being transmitted.

“If we’re going to experience the pain of having positive cases, let’s learn as much as we can, so that we can craft biosecurity strategies to address those things that are found to be the cause of transmission,” he said.

Wide Range Of Symptoms And Outcomes
Naig added that the scope of H5N1 infections has varied between farms as well as in individual animals.

“I think maybe early on, folks said, ‘Oh, it’s really just a kind of a minimal milk production loss, and then everything gets back to normal.’ I don’t think it’s quite that way,” he said. “Some (producers) aren’t seeing clinical signs while others see acute infections and significant milk losses. We are also hearing about some cattle mortality, though it’s maybe because of a secondary infection or condition that actually causes that mortality.”

Naig told Flory he has asked USDA to provide compensation for animals that Iowa producers have had to cull or where death occurred.

“We continue to make that request because we are seeing some losses, but that’s still a work in progress,” he said. “And, of course, again, we’re trying to get research on the ground to determine how H5N1 is behaving. The other thing is we can’t treat this as a dairy disease. It is a dairy and a poultry issue. We’ve got to think about the larger livestock industry. That’s how we’re approaching it here.”

The conversation between Naig and Flory is available in its entirety below:

A Tale Of Two Crops: Farmers Struggle Against Flooding And Drought

Goodbye, El Niño. Hello, La Niña? The Big Transition to La Niña is Already Underway

NOAA'S Winter Outlook is a Headache For Farmers Already Dealing with Drought

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:43:41 GMT

It could be a dry winter in the South and a wetter than normal winter in the North, according the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Demonstration’s (NOAA) winter forecast . With a strengthening La Nina, NOAA says the weather this winter will favor warmer and drier conditions across much of the southern tier of states, but the opposite for the North.

“With La Nina well established and expected to persist through the upcoming 2020 winter season, we anticipate the typical, cooler, wetter North, and warmer, drier South, as the most likely outcome of winter weather that the U.S. will experience this year,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

(Farm Journal)

Considering more than 45% of the continental U.S. is currently experiencing drought, the winter forecast isn’t good news for areas already parched

“We are going into a La Nina pattern, which does mean wetter and colder to our north and warmer and drier to our south,” says Martha Shulski, state climatologist, University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “98% of Nebraska is abnormally dry or worse in drought, we have some pretty significant rainfall deficits, so even if we have normal precipitation for the winter, which is our dry time of year, we’ll only make up about half of that.”

(Farm Journal)

Shulksi says Nebraska needs a wetter than normal winter to help make up for the significant moisture deficits. However, she thinks it’s unlikely La Nina’s wetter than normal pattern will hit states like Nebraska.

“We need a wetter than normal winter as well as spring to make up those really significant deficits,” she says. “There’s only about 25% of the state that has adequate soil moisture. We need to make up those deficits, and right now, it’s not looking like that’s going to happen.”

Shulksi says if you look at the drought monitor map today, the picture isn’t good for soil moisture and drought conditions. And without ample moisture this winter, she’s concerned how the drought will grow.

“Looking at the drought monitor map going into next spring, we’re likely to be at where we are now or possibly even worse going into the next growing season,” she says.

(Farm Journal)

NOAA’s says the widespread, ongoing drought currently in place across the western half of the continental U.S. is a result of the weak Southwest summer monsoon season and near-record-high temperatures. NOAA does expect drought conditions are expected to improve in the northern Rockies, Northwest, New England, Alaska and Hawaii over the coming months.

2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

As 2024 comes to an end, roughly 70% of the nation is experiencing some level of drought and dryness.

Recent precipitation led to small improvements in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas northeast to the Central Appalachians. Since its peak in September, the drought affecting the Central Appalachians and Upper Ohio Valley has steadily improved.

In the northeast, near to above-normal precipitation in the past 30 days means drought conditions have improved.

Across the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas, precipitation deficits continue to increase.

December is typically a drier time of year for the Upper Midwest and Northern to Central Great Plains.

Since the beginning of October, precipitation has generally averaged below normal across the Central Rockies, Great Basin, Southwest and southern California.

Northwest California and much of the Pacific Northwest have experienced wetter-than-normal conditions.

When it comes to severe or extreme drought, parts of the Northern Plains, the Southwest and the Tennessee Valley fall in those categories. Portions of the Midwest are now considered D1/moderate drought, and one-fifth of Indiana is in D2/severe drought.

Looking at various crop production areas, the following are currently affected by drought:

Barley, 35%
Corn, 54%
Cotton, 18%
Durum wheat, 70%
Peanut, 29%
Rice, 15%
Sorghum, 31%
Soybean, 47%
Spring wheat, 33%
Sugarbeet, 48%
Sunflower, 78%
Winter wheat, 27%

While the drought monitor looks longer term, NASA’s root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across the Corn Belt and Southwest.

The Dec. 23, 2024, root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across parts of the Corn Belt and Southwest.

(NASA)

Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist at Conduit Ag, says the current La Nina is weak and fading, but it continues to influence weather patterns, which is sending warning signs for spring.

Snodgrass says we’re missing one important component in the atmosphere — the subtropical jet stream, which comes from Hawaii.

“We have the polar jet in place that will drive really cold air into the New Year, especially into the eastern two-thirds of the country, really cold air for probably a while,” Snodgrass says. “Until we crank the jet stream out of the Southwest, it’s hard to return a lot of moisture and break the fear of drought spreading from Mexico or from the western High Plains, which I think is where it’s going to come from next year.”

Snodgrass is worried about drought for two reasons:

Drought conditions are developing in Mexico, the western Plains, the High Plains and all the way up to Canada.
In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, the spring to follow was also dry. That causes concern for a big chunk of the Plains and into the Midwest.

Snodgrass says the best opportunity for a pattern shift would be if La Nina breaks down in the next few weeks and transitions to a more neutral pattern heading into spring.

Eric Snodgrass is on the agenda for Top Producer Summit in February. Register today!

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