Drought

Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

Tue, 27 May 2025 17:19:10 GMT

The forecast is calling for a hot and dry June, which is a stark contrast from the cool and wet weather pattern that’s been dominating. As rains continue to suffocate the southern Corn Belt and the mid-South, those areas could face higher amounts of prevent plant this year, while much of the West will turn dry and warm by next week.

Past 72 hour precipitation totals.

(Pivotal Weather )

Over Memorial Day weekend, parts of Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas saw up to 5" of rainfall. Texas also saw rain, with severe storms even producing large hail. Posts on social media showed grapefruit-sized hail pounding areas of the state.

Never seen hail this big before. In Afton, Texas now !! #txwx pic.twitter.com/tYMM7TML8n
— Pie☈☈e-Ma☈c Doucet (@PMDStormchaser) May 25, 2025

A massive 6-inch, 1.5-pound hailstone, roughly cantaloupe-sized, fell near Afton, Texas, leaving locals stunned. Witness Colt Forney captured the incredible moment! ( May25, 2025)

Have you ever seen hail this insanely huge? pic.twitter.com/efXuX9dA7j
— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) May 26, 2025

The forecast for the rest of this week shows that pattern shifting even farther south, with the Southeast seeing more than 4" of rain.

“We saw places in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota — especially the Dakotas — that picked up well over 3" of rain,” says Michael Clark of BamWX . “Now going forward, the forecast for the next seven days is a much drier outlook for those areas with the heaviest rain focused across the deep South — where they don’t need it. That includes southern Missouri, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. They don’t need rain there right now.”

Precipitation forecast over the next 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

But it’s not just the rain meteorologists are watching. The cooler temperatures are also a concern.

“This map [pictured below] shows the growing degree heat units and the anomaly, or the departure from normal, for the next 10 days,” Clark says. “You can see nobody’s really running above. We’re running quite a bit below, so we’re going to struggle to really accumulate any heating degree or growing degree days right now.”

Cooler temperatures have created a problem with growing degree units (GDUs) to end May.

(BAM Weather )

Those cooler temperatures will be short-lived, though. NOAA’s heat index forecast for the first week of June shows south Texas seeing temperatures rise above 100°F. Pockets of the Plains, Midwest, Southwest and Southeast will hit 85°F to 95°F.

Heat index forecast for the first week of June.

(NOAA )

This could be a precursor for what’s to come the remainder of June, according to Clark.

“The focus is turning to a much warmer temperature pattern this summer,” Clark says. “Our precipitation outlook for June features a risk for below-normal precipitation, and really, we might already be seeing hints of that. But it’s normal to above-normal in the rainfall department in the East and Southeast right now for the month of June.”

Precipitation outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

Temperature outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

The hot and dry forecasts aren’t new. Meteorologists have been concerned about dryness in the Western Corn Belt since winter. But Clark says the active weather pattern we’ve seen this spring could put those forecasts on a detour this summer.

“The models have had a tendency to dry this up and pull rain out of the forecast, but we keep seeing cold fronts and big, active pattern signals coming through. We do think that ends, but some persistence in the pattern overall might yield that we see a couple more chances of rain and cooler shots of air in the first half of June. Maybe that pattern shows up the second half of June into July,” Clark says.

The good news is leading into that drier and warmer spell to start June, the recent rains have helped improve the soil moisture.

Soil moisture map shows improvement in parts of the upper Midwest, South and West.

(BAM Weather)

It's Not Just Drought Meteorologists Are Concerned About This Summer, It's Also Heat

Tue, 20 May 2025 16:14:50 GMT

With the record heat across the Plains and South last week, a sudden burst of cold across the upper Midwest and the outbreak of tornadoes that tore across the country over the weekend, it’s been an active weather pattern so far this May. That trend is set to continue.

As forecasters look ahead, NOAA’s latest summer outlook points to dry conditions across much of the western U.S. as well as above-normal temperatures across the country.

Summer Pattern Takes Shape
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the U.S. has been in “atmospheric limbo” for the past six weeks. That’s been the catalyst for the weather extremes.

“Think back to the early April flooding in the Mid-South and the early May flooding in the Southern Plains. We saw a heat wave across the Northern Plains last week, so very extreme weather. But it’s shifting around,” Rippey says.

He says now we’re waiting for the arrival of the summer lock-in, a pattern that typically takes shape by Memorial Day and provides a fairly stable pattern for the summer months.

The precipitation outlook for the month of June.

(CPC )

“It’s starting to look like by the end of May into June we will see a ridge developing somewhere across the western half of the country as that begins to lock in. This is the expectation for June, which is below-normal precipitation in much of the western half of the country, possibly extending onto the High Plains. And then wet conditions will either develop or continue in the East,” says Rippey, pointing to the latest outlook from the National Weather Service.

Heat and Drought Ahead
Rippey says the outlook shows a stark difference between the East and West of the country, where the East is expected to see moisture, and the West is expected to be dry.

Summer Precipitation Outlook, which includes June, July and August

(CPC )

The outlook for summer points to warmer-than-average temperatures across the majority of the U.S.

(CPC)

“The June, July and August outlook from the National Weather Service is kind of the same picture,” Rippey says. “The climate models have been very consistent for a number of months now in showing we will have a ridge across Western North America that could lead to either drought development, drought continuation or even drought expansion across some of the Northern Plains and northwestern areas of the country.”

The summer outlook also looks to bring the heat. The latest forecast indicates the entire U.S. will likely experience above normal temperatures this summer.

Recent Rains Were Needed

Precipitation totals from the past 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

The north Central U.S. received some much-needed rain over the weekend. Nebraska and the Dakotas saw anywhere from a trace of rain to 4", but Rippey is concerned that moisture may be short-lived.

“We could trend back into a warmer, drier pattern as we move into the summer. Watch for that drought to potentially expand eastward as we move into and through the summer months,” Rippey says.

Drought Expansion

The seasonal drought outlook for summer.

(CPC )

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, which is also released by the NWS Climate Prediction Center, shows the expectation drought will either persist or develop during the June, July and August time frame.

“By the time we get to the end of August, this is their expectation for drought coverage. Note the expansion in places like the Dakotas, even into the Western Corn Belt. That’s where we’ll be watching because it starts intersecting some of our major crop areas where we could see significant drought during the growing season,” Rippey says.

According to the Climate Prediction Center outlook, there are conflicts when it comes to Arizona. The outlook points toward wetter-than-normal conditions in much of Arizona, but CPC says models provide conflicting and generally weak indications. That means it’s unclear as to exactly which areas of the monsoon region may receive meaningful rainfall, and whether it would be enough to improve the drought designations by at least one category during the summer season.

Considerations for Feeding Cattle Through Drought

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 13:08:09 GMT

Several regions across the country have experienced drought conditions in recent years, and the weather trend looks to continue in 2025. It’s important to take steps to plan ahead if pasture conditions deteriorate to the point of having to supplement or feed pairs in confinement.

Karla Wilke, a cow-calf and stocker management specialist for the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, addressed the topic of preparing for drought situations in a recent UNL webinar.

“Feeding pairs is different than feeding pregnant non-lactating cows,” Wilke explains. “That’s something all of us are pretty familiar with because most of us in the wintertime have to supplement our dry, pregnant cows, but what we’re talking about now is feeding them at a time that they would normally be getting all their nutrient needs met out on grass.”

Wilke says there are three big concerns to address when feeding cattle in confinement that would typically be out on pasture.

Meet the energy demands of lactation, which are tremendously more than during gestation
Make sure cows have a decent body condition status for rebreeding
Account for the dry-matter intake of the calf

“We often think of the cow supporting the calf, which she does, but in addition to nursing the cow, that calf out on pasture is starting to eat green grass, and if we don’t have them out there then that calf’s intake is not going to be accounted for there,” Wilke explains.

The gray bars indicate total digestible nutrients while the red bars are crude protein.

(Karla Wilke, UNL)

Once that cow goes into lactation, her nutrient needs are quite a bit higher than they were in the winter before that calf was born. A grazing cow on green pasture can meet her needs for early lactation, whereas a cow eating meadow hay and distillers without going out on grass will use up energy reserves and lose fat deposition and body score, Wilke says.

Research dating back as far as 1986 and as recently as 2021 has shown cows in a body condition score less than a 5 on a 1 to 9 scale do not breed back.

“If that’s what their body condition score is at calving, they do not breed back as well as the cows that are in a 5 or greater at calving,” Wilke adds. “We have to meet those needs nutritionally in what we feed them.”

Feeding options when pastures are unavailable:

• Mixer wagon and total mixed ration

• Sacrifice pasture or an area of a pasture to use as feeding ground

• Use hay, crop residue, fallow ground and pivot corners plus supplement

“The important thing to remember is that the feeding space during feeding time needs to be about 2' per cow and one for the baby calf or the young calf,” Wilke says. “The positive thing of being able to do this on crop ground, or somewhere like that, is it does allow you to spread that out enough that we don’t have a lot of issues with boss cows. The downside is waste that you might encounter on the ground.”

Wilke advises to take into consideration that the nursing calf will eat about 1% to 1.5% of its body weight in forage dry-matter intake.

“As he grows, he eats more pounds of feed, so we need to account for that when we’re putting together a diet for the pairs,” she explains. “Research has also shown creep feeding had a greater return over feeding with pairs and early weaning. If creep feeding isn’t an option, a growing period still provided an advantage.”

An example ration of ground residue, wet distiller grains, triticale, silage, corn silage, and some mineral would meet the nutrient demands of the pair. Additional things to consider: yardage charge for having to feed daily, hidden costs of trucking cattle to other pastures, wear and tear on vehicles.

(Karla Wilke)

If you don’t have a mixer or can’t afford someone to grind, Wilke says there are ways to be creative with feeding.

“I’ve had people tip bales on end and soak them with molasses to get the cows to eat the poorer quality hay without having to run it through a grinder, and then they would feed supplemental cake with it,” Wilke says.

Rolling out wheat straw bales and feeding distillers grains in a bunk is another option.

Wilke reminds producers to be mindful that minerals and vitamins for confinement are different than for cattle on grass. Distillers are high in sulfur, which is an antagonist to copper.

“Mineral should have a highly available source of copper in either copper sulfate or copper chloride,” she says “Lactating cows in confinement also need a pretty healthy dose of magnesium in the mineral. If those cows are going through a drought and they’ve already been through a long winter, they are not going to get vitamin A out of the grass.”

Be aware that commercially available mineral packages are usually intended to be fed when cattle are grazing so they might not have an appropriate amount or availability of certain minerals or vitamins. In addition to mineral, lick tubs are used to provide a source of nitrogen for bacteria so cattle can do a better job of digesting poorer quality available feed.

“Once that cow goes into lactation, she has to have energy, and there’s no way that just eating on that lick tub is enough,” Wilke explains. “She can’t just take on more of that poor-quality forage because she ate some nitrogen from that lick tub. You’ve got a limitation there now that you’ve got to provide something else that provides energy for her.”

Preparing during the good years
Sam Schmitt, a fifth-generation rancher from Gordon, Neb., runs a Hereford based cow herd and yearlings in the Sandhills. The family’s philosophy has always been to take half and leave half when it comes to grazing pastures. He’s preparing for another hot, dry summer and wants to make sure his cows are able to breed back. He’ll be using available pasture and supplementing as conditions allow.

“We’re calving now, and cows are getting 2% body weight of hay a day,” he says. “It’s mostly millet and alfalfa with some oats. They’re calving up, and calves seem to be growing, but I want to make sure we have the mineral package and supplement to keep them going.”

In addition to pairs, the Schmitts run a yearling operation, marketing in July or August depending on when they reach 850 lb. to 950 lb.

“Traditionally, we feed oats and supplement DDGs or a pellet to our calves,” Schmitt says. “They’ll go out to pasture, and we’ll watch to make sure they keep growing. We’re purposely understocked now to make sure we have enough grass. If they look like they’re a little lackluster, we will add a Rumensin mineral.”

The Schmitts have enough farm ground to produce the majority of their feed with the exception of protein base from either cake or a pellet or distillers grains.

Yearlings waiting to move pastures at L — S Ranch in the Nebraska Sandhills.

(Sam Schmitt)

“We’ve responsibly stocked long enough that if we have a drought this year and next year, as long as we can keep our hay count up and can afford to supplement things, then we’ll be alright,” Schmitt says. “We’ve kept to the philosophy of 10 acres per cow, and we don’t stretch it out unless we have a really good year. We’ve also tried to keep an extra year’s worth of hay each year.”

This isn’t the first drought the family has weathered in the 100 years they have been ranching.

“We had a similar drought in 2012. Everybody was shipping cattle left and right, and they just didn’t have any place for them, and so they had to go to somebody who’d pay for them,” he says. “But we didn’t suffer those costs.”

Schmitt says these are the years you prepare for.

“One thing my elders have always been very serious about is drought,” he adds. “This is drought prone country. You’re in the Great Plains, and this is what happens, and this is why our grass always comes back after a drought.”

Your next read: Cow Herd Mineral Program: Key to Overall Nutrition

Goodbye, La Niña? Eric Snodgrass Dissects What the Shift Means for Weather This Spring and Summer

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 17:09:56 GMT

La Niña is weakening, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) expects neutral conditions to develop in the next month . But even with La Niña fading, meteorologists are still concerned about drought this spring and summer.

NOAA this week said forecasters expect ENSO-neutral conditions to develop in the next month and persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s summer. According to NOAA, La Niña’s signature is cooler-than-average surface water in the east-central tropical Pacific, stronger-than-average trade winds, and drier conditions over the central Pacific.

ENSO-neutral means conditions could be close to average, but Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist, says that doesn’t mean the weather will be normal this spring and summer.

“I do expect changes,” Snodgrass says. “Think about it like this: The previous winter was an El Niño winter, and it was very mild and very wet. So, we got into spring ’24 with tons of moisture. I mean, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota flooded out. Then we had this incredibly dry fall as the La Niña began, and it reached a peak twice. It actually hit a peak in December, and then a secondary peak about a month later at the end of January. It’s been fading ever since. The big question is, as we go into neutral conditions for this upcoming growing season, is it going to be one that paints a picture of precipitation extremes? Did it leave us with any sort of kind of problems from winter that are carrying over?”

Snodgrass says the severe weather outbreaks on Friday, that brought high winds, dust storms and wildfire warnings across the Plains, is a reminder how dry it is in the Southwest.

“We’ve got major pockets of the country that are still dealing with some pretty big drought conditions. It is fading, and that is a signal we have to pay attention to,” Snodgrass says.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey is also concerned about what impact the shifting pattern will have on farmers this spring. But it’s not just the dryness. It’s also the fact areas are getting inundated with rains that could pose problems.

“With this stormy weather pattern in place, that is going to create some difficulty for spring field work in some areas. It looks like the primary storm track may be through parts of the middle of the country extending into the lower Midwest and eventually the interior northeast. That is one area where we already have fairly wet conditions,” Rippey says.

How sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific changed over the course of all La Niña events since 1950 (gray lines) and 2024-25 (black line). This shows the traditional calculation for Niño-3.4, the monthly temperature compared to the most recent 30-year average (1991–2020 for the 2024 line). By this measure, the La Niña threshold was crossed in December 2024, but La Niña remains weak.

(NOAA)

La Niñas and El Niños Are Strongest in the Winter
Snodgrass points out La Niñas and El Niños are always strongest in Northern Hemisphere’s winter, which means they fade in spring and summer.

While La Niña-like conditions were a trademark in late fall, we didn’t reach the official definition of La Niña until January.

“The atmosphere way back in November was already treating our winter timeframe like a La Niña,” Snodgrass says. So, we were getting the influences of it as it comes in and goes out. And now the question is, what’s it going to do?”

February 2025 sea surface temperature compared to the 1985-1993 average. The surface of the east-central tropical Pacific is slightly below average temperature, but much of the global ocean remains warmer than average.

(NOAA )

“This is a great map to look at,” Snodgrass says, referencing the map above. “If you focus right in the middle, you see the large area of the cooler colors. Our line is now shifting to the central and West Pacific and behind it over by South America. All of the warmer water is beginning to emerge. And that’s what’s killing it because there’s a trade wind across that area from the east to the west. We’re going to watch this fade carefully during the spring. But the question is: Do we get winter’s leftovers?”

What Fueled the Dryness This Winter?
During the winter, Snodgrass points out there was no subtropical jet. That’s what fueled drought in the Southwest and Northwest.

“I’m actually kind of worried about the beginning of April having another shot at cold air after what we’ve been experiencing in March, which has been so very, very mild. Then you say, well, we’ve had so much dry air in place. Are we still worried about more dry air coming back? To be honest, these big storm systems coming through the central U.S., if we could get four, maybe five more of those by early April, we’re going to hate it. It’s nasty weather. It’s not fun, and it’s dangerous, but it returns moisture. That could be part of the mix of things, including the fading of La Niña that could help bring us away from these major early season drought risk scenarios.”

55% of corn production, 46% of soybean production, 33% of the cotton growing area and 27% of the winter wheat production are currently experiencing drought.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Growing Drought Concerns
What if it doesn’t? What if we don’t see more of this severe weather hit the Southwest and Plains, and moisture remains absent as we get into the height of spring? Well, the area will enter into the height of the growing season dry and reduce their chances of seeing moisture this summer.

“That’s a box we check every spring,” Snodgrass says. “If the drought monitor saw a reduction in drought over winter, then that gives us a different look for spring. But what we see here is two-thirds of the country in some stage of drought, including the abnormally dry category. But it’s the epicenters of drought that are so concerning. Look at the Western Corn Belt. Look at the Southwest. We just wonder if that funnels into the Mississippi Valley as we go forward.”

At the same time some areas are seeing drought, Kentucky, southern Indiana, southern Illinois, Tennessee, Arkansas and the boot heel of Missouri are all experiencing heavy rains and flooding.

“By May 11, I want to know what the drought monitor map looks like. If it looks no different, then I’m going to be sounding alarms going into summer with concerns this will start to creep and move because as soon as we get into the summer weather, all we get is convective storms pop off. And what do they do? They just locally deliver rain - not big broad swaths of it,” Snodgrass says.

Tale of Two Weather Scenarios
He says the forecast leading up to May 11 is a tale of two weather patterns, with the Mississippi River being the dividing line for moisture.

“If you are along it and east of it, I think we’re going to have tight windows to plant. You could include a little bit more of Missouri, Iowa and Minnesota in that as well,” Snodgrass says. “I think we’re going to see repeated storm systems. The best moisture is east. It keeps avoiding that southern plains area.”

What to Watch: Where the Storm Chasers End Up
Snodgrass says if storm chasers are busying chasing severe weather across the Ohio Valley, the mid-south and the southeast, but not in Kansas and the Plains, that’s a key indicator there’s a problem with the moisture getting back into the plains.

“If it’s not there by the time we start June, it’s very difficult to rely on the atmosphere to return it once you get into the summer months if you live in the central plains, which is where they could build from,” he adds.

To watch the complete discussion with Snodgrass, visit Farm Journal TV and take advantage of the free trial.

Your Next Read:
Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 17:17:03 GMT

As Eric Snodgrass looks six weeks out to the end of March, he doesn’t like the weather pattern he sees shaping up for spring – more dry conditions.

Varying levels of mild to moderate drought have dogged much of the upper Midwest, West and Southwest since last fall, and the outlook is for more of the same, according to Snodgrass, a leading U.S. meteorologist.

Check out the soil moisture deficit currently in the upper Midwest.

(Eric Snodgrass)

“I’m concerned about the way the central United States and the western Corn Belt, in particular, are going to be dealing with the risk of drought building into spring,” Snodgrass told livestock producers and farmers attending the Top Producer Summit in Kansas City last week.

History shows that drought tends to beget drought. In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, Snodgrass says the spring to follow was also dry.

The current weekly U.S. Drought Monitor echoes his observations. The Monitor released last Thursday (Feb. 20) says drought is impacting 34% of the beef cattle inventory area, 27% of the dairy area and 49% of U.S. alfalfa hay production acres.

Current conditions are dry in many of the regions where beef and dairy are produced.

(U.S. Drought Monitor)

Arctic Air Is Contributing To Drought Conditions

Snodgrass spells out what usually happens in late winter to create the moisture livestock producers and farmers need for U.S. grain and livestock production.

As the jet stream moves across the Pacific Ocean, it typically splits and sweeps into the West Coast from two positions – one from the northern North Pacific Ocean and the other from the southern North Pacific Ocean, close to Hawaii. The two portions of the jet stream usually then scream across U.S. western mountain ranges, picking up moisture they then deposit in portions of the West, Southwest and Midwest before moving on to the East Coast and exiting the U.S. in Maine.

This year, the portion of the jet stream that normally comes from Hawaii has veered from its usual course and possibly even stalled. One indicator of that happening, Snodgrass says, is a drop off in ocean temperatures in the Baja of California and the Gulf of Alaska. The result is dry, arctic air has been moving into portions of the U.S.

For some parts of the U.S. the cold, arctic air has brought snow along with it. But the snow holds little moisture that would help alleviate the frozen dry soils. “We have some deep snow in areas right now, but it’s only got maybe two-tenths of an inch of liquid in it,” Snodgrass explains.

That’s bad news for livestock producers and farmers who need a full profile of soil moisture going into spring and don’t have one.

Similar concerns were voiced by Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, Inc., during the Top Producer Summit.

“If we continue bringing these cold shots of air through North America, we will have a below-normal precipitation bias [in western states] as we go forward through spring planting season,” Lerner explained during the taping of the U.S. Farm Report.

This map shows what the precipitation could look like in March. But remember, Mother Nature is unpredictable. She could change course and bring moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass)

That’s not the meteorologists’ expectation for the East and Southeast. Much of those regions have had an over-abundance of moisture recently. Lerner and Snodgrass agree those areas are likely to continue having plenty of moisture going into spring.

More Weather Trouble Brewing For Summer

If current cold conditions continue through March, which Lerner and Snodgrass anticipate will be the case, what will likely occur is a knee-jerk reaction in the atmosphere: a warming trend will start in late March or early April and build through late spring and into early summer.

“If we warm up quickly in the spring, which is a high possibility, we could end up falling behind the eight ball a little bit more on soil moisture,” Lerner says.

While some meteorologists point to this year’s La Niña as a cause of the continued move to dryer conditions, Snodgrass and Lerner say that’s not the case.

“La Niña will be gone by the time we get into mid-March,” Lerner predicts. “This La Niña hasn’t lasted long enough to really have a big footprint in the atmosphere. As we get into April, it’ll be pretty much a non-event.”

Keep An Eye On The Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Lerner and Snodgrass believe a negative phase of what scientists call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) could be a primary contributor to ongoing drought and higher temperatures by April. The PDO is a long-term climate pattern that affects the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and can influence weather patterns across the globe.

While the PDO has not had what Lerner calls a “tremendous amount of impact” in past years in the U.S., it’s looking more influential for the 2025 spring and summer.

“I’m seeing some additional cooling off the West Coast of North America that may end up leading us into a greater ridge building with all the dryness that’s in the soil and that negative PDO,” Lerner says. “I’m not ready to go all the way over with [that prediction], but that’s where I’m headed.”

The Surprising Solution To Drought

If Mother Nature continues on her worrying course, Snodgrass says continued low temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska would be a signal in early summer.

“If we get into June and it’s cool there, that is telling me that the atmosphere is not moving. And if it doesn’t move, well, all of a sudden we could find ourselves in a situation in late June into July with more drought and excess heat,” Snodgrass says.

Another worrying sign he says to watch for is where the active spring weather pattern falls. If areas of Kansas and the Great Plains see an active tornado season, Snodgrass says that means the weather pattern is more favorable for rains to fall across the Midwest and West. But if tornado warnings blare across the Southeast, Snodgrass says that’s a signal drought could be a problem this summer.

There is a solution to the troubling weather patterns, he adds, one most beef and dairy producers understandably won’t welcome – a big, wet snow on the Northern Plains.

“The No. 1 thing I’m praying for right now is an April 4 blizzard. I want a foot of snow,” Snodgrass told producers and farmers, many of whom laughed.

Snodgrass laughed, too, and added, “You’ll hate me for about a week, and then love me through the rest of May.”

With More Arctic Air Set to Blast the U.S., Why This Winter Could Be Remembered for Its Extremes

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 21:42:02 GMT

After ice and blizzard conditions blasted the Midwest, South and East to start January, another round of frigid temperatures is set to blanket much of the U.S., and this time, temperatures could fall even lower than the previous round of cold.

Much of the U.S. is still seeing snow cover, with temperatures too cold to melt the recent snow. But now, we’re bracing for even colder temperatures as what’s called the “Siberian Express” is set to arrive this weekend. What exactly is the Siberian Express? Well, it gets its name from the cold air’s geographic origins. It’s when arctic air spills into the U.S., and it can have multiple sources, including Arctic Canada, Alaska, and in this case, Russia’s Siberia region, which is home to the coldest place on earth.

snow cover

(Weather Undground)

Meteorologists say the active start to January is a sign of what’s ahead.

“We’ve tried to bring some moisture back into places that have not seen it,” says Eric Sodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Conduit. “I’ve had this concern for a while about the lack of good flow in the atmosphere and what that’s meant toward building drought in some places through fall and now early winter. And I hate to say it, but nasty winters tend to give us a much better outlook for the next year. So, hey, let’s keep these things going for the rest of January and February, too.”

It’s not just the cold that’s turning heads, but it’s also the amount of snow that’s fallen since the start of the year, and it’s setting records. Take Kansas City, Mo., for example. That area has seen 13.” of snow in January, which makes it the second snowiest start to January in Kansas City history. Some parts of Arkansas saw as much as 15" of snow last week. That compares to areas that typically see snow, such as Chicago, recording little to no snowfall so far this year.

pic.twitter.com/rC9Dbh0qHE
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) January 13, 2025

The Winter of Extremes and Episodic Cold Outbreaks

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey thinks the winter of 2025 will be remembered for the extremes.

“With this pattern set up, it’s going to be too dry in the Southwest, stormy in the Northwest, and episodic cold outbreaks across the country,” he says. “Everybody remembers those because especially embedded in an otherwise relatively mild winter, you really remember those hard hitters.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

And that’s exactly what we are in for later this week. According to Rippey, the upcoming Arctic blast is one of those “episodic cold outbreaks” we typically see during La Niña, and what he describes as a re-amplification of the pattern we’ve been seeing for much of the month.

“Sunday night’s GFS model is showing this for extreme minimum temperatures over the next seven days,” says Rippey. “Bitter cold should stay out of the Deep South, but it may get a bit colder than this early next week before it gets better.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

Recent Moisture Helps Drought in Places
What about the moisture? The recent moisture is helping drought conditions in parts of the upper Midwest and some areas of the plains.

“But as you move to the south, that’s where I have concerns, that southwestern quadrant of the country, southern California, to the High Plains, like West Texas, western Kansas, western Oklahoma,” Rippey says. ”All I can say is it’s very fortunate those areas in the central and southern plains had a wet November because it doesn’t look good for the foreseeable future.”

But what about areas farther north, like Montana and the Dakotas? Lerner doesn’t expect widespread relief this winter.

“We’re getting some waves of snow to come across Montana and the Dakotas, but it’s a dry, powdery snow, and it’s really not providing high volumes of moisture,” says Drew Lerner, founder and senior agricultural meteorologist at World Weather, Inc. “This pattern will continue for the next several weeks, so we’ll put out a little bit more snow up that way. But as far as being able to get a big soaking rain type, you’re going to have to wait until spring.”

Meteorologists say one thing we are seeing that’s consistent with La Niña, is the sharp dividing line between wetter conditions and drought. And NOAA’s seasonal outlook shows that divide with below normal precipitation forecast for much of the southwest and Deep South over the next 90 days. Above normal in areas of the northwest and east.

Precip. Outlook

(NOAA)

Temp Outlook

(NOAA )

Drought Watch
Lerner thinks parts of the upper Midwest and northern Plains could see more active weather with rain into spring.

“So, I’m not too terribly concerned about the fact that we’re still seeing persistent dryness in those areas,” Lerner says. “Not all of that region will get relief when we get to the spring, but I would say probably two-thirds of that region will.”

But even with more moisture across other parts of the U.S., Snodgrass says he’s concerned about drought in other areas due to the weak La Niña.

“We tend to be wet through the Mississippi valley and east going into spring. There tends to be lots of storms, but we tend to see the drought that’s in West Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, the Sunbelt expand up toward Colorado,” Snodgrass says. “Most models want to bring dry conditions out of the southern Canadian prairie into Montana, and that’s kind of funneling toward the western Corn Belt. And I’ve based this off historical analogs looking at a lot of different years that looks something like this one. We just tended to be a bit hotter and drier.”

He says looking back, six out of 10 years that we’ve seen a similar pattern, we’ve ended up with heat and dryness in key months of July and August.

“To be honest with you, this is the first time in fall and winter that I’ve been kind of saying, ‘Hey, I think our risk is elevated for drought,’” Snodgrass says.

He says something extremely important to watch is what happens in the Gulf of Alaska.

“If between March and June, if that’s where it gets cold, the risk of drought in the Midwest goes way up. Watch that March time frame,” Snodgrass says. “I think that’s where our risk factor is going to be going forward. So I’m watching winter, but I’m more concerned about spring/summer.”

Your Next Read:
Winter Storm Wallops the U.S. With Heaviest Snowfall in a Decade, Southern States Brace for Round 2

2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

Is It Time To Wean?

Wed, 07 Aug 2024 22:22:04 GMT

As of Aug. 1, 2024, the Mesonet Oklahoma Drought indicates over 69% of Oklahoma is abnormally dry. Of that percentage over 25% of our state is rated in moderate to severe drought. One potential management solution to dwindling forage resources in cow-calf operations is weaning calves.

The average age of beef calves weaned in the United States is a little over 7 months of age. While calves can be weaned as early as 60 days of age, this comes with quite a bit of added management. Simply weaning calves one to two months early is a cost effective management strategy that saves body condition score (BCS) and allows thinners cows (falling below BCS of 4) to more easily recapture flesh before having their next calf. When the nutritional demands of lactation are removed by weaning there is significant reduction (15 – 20%) in the dietary energy needed by cows. Saving BCS on cows now comes with the potential benefit of improved cow productivity in the years that follow. Weaning earlier than normal is most beneficial in years when pasture forage is inadequate to support herd nutritional requirements. From the standpoint of range management, it reduces the risk of overgrazing and accordingly adds to the long-term health of the grazing system.

If you plan to wean earlier than normal to alleviate stress on cows and pastures, keep the following management practices in mind:

• The first two weeks post weaning are a critical time for calves to overcome weaning stress, maintain health and become nutritionally independent by learning to consume feed.

• Lower the risk of health problems and promote calf growth by giving proper vaccinations prior to weaning. Castrate and dehorn calves when giving pre-weaning vaccinations. This permits calves to deal with the stress of these management practices while still nursing.

• Get calves accustomed to a feed bunk and water trough as quickly as possible (if not prior to weaning). Creep feeding calves for a few weeks prior to weaning will ease the transition and get calves accustomed to concentrate feed. Maintain access to good quality, clean water at all times.

• Fence line wean if possible. This eliminates stress by permitting calves to remain in the same pasture where they are familiar with feed, water, shade, etc.

• The feed ration is critical because feed intake is initially low after weaning. It needs to be highly palatable, nutrient dense, dust free and include a complete vitamin and mineral supplement.

• After calves are over the stress of weaning they should begin to consume approximately 3% of their body weight in high quality feed each day. Feed intake variation or depressed appetite can indicate health problems.

• Shade is important if weaning during summer heat.

Expect a Hotter Than Normal Summer This Year

Thu, 23 May 2024 21:29:52 GMT

If new predictions hold true it could be a hotter than normal summer across much of the U.S. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released its outlook for the next three months. Forecasters are predicting that nearly every U.S. state will lean toward hotter than normal temperatures throughout June, July and August. The highest chances for above average heat are in the West. States that are not predicted to see warmer temperatures are North and South Dakota, Minnesota and western Iowa.

The same areas that could see higher temperatures are also predicted to receive less than average precipitation. Meanwhile, the eastern portion of the U.S. could receive more rain than normal. These predictions come as meteorologists say we are coming into a La Niña pattern, which is usually associated with drought conditions for southern half of the country.

Now Is the Time to Pay Attention to the Weather Forecast: Severe Snowstorm Forecasted to Dump Multiple Feet of Snow

Fri, 05 Jan 2024 21:08:28 GMT

As the calendar flipped to the new year, Mother Nature unleashed the potential for back-to-back blasts of winter weather. From the possibility of blizzard conditions early next week, to flooding in the southeast, the impact on agriculture could be two-fold: a possible cure for drought conditions in parts of the Plains and South, but stressful for livestock.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the forecast is pointing to a very active weather winter pattern in January, which is a hallmark of El Niño.

“There’s no question about it. As I always say, you can’t blame an individual or a single storm and El Niño, but you start looking at the overall patterns, and there’s absolutely no question that when you start seeing a pattern setting up like this, a storm pipeline from the Pacific coming across the Southwest and into the Midwest or east, that is El Niño,” Rippey says.

Eric Snodgrass is a well-known ag meteorologist who’s also watching the change in potential winter weather this month. He says El Niño reached its peak at the end of December.

“It has plateaued. And what that typically means is we tend to have what we call a back-half weighted winter, which means December is usually pretty mild, not a whole lot to talk about, but once we get going into this new year, that jet stream is really going to start to become quite a bit more active,” Snodgrass says.

Active Jet Stream Set to Bring Multiple Winter Storms

The active jet stream is exactly what the U.S. is now seeing, with multiple storms lined up for the start of the year. Rippey says it’s an active storm track that starts in the South, eventually ending up along the East Coast.

“The storm that’s coming out late this week, it’s going to be a decent storm system - a decent winter storm. But it’s going to pale in comparison to the blockbuster storm that we see coming for early next week,” he says.

High Plains with current storm 53% covered in shallow layer of snow. Feet of snow on the way? pic.twitter.com/fAZzWeHurr
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) January 5, 2024

Snowfall reports from the National Weather Service (NWS) Albuquerque, New Mexico station shows impressive snowfall already falling in the Rocky Mountains. As of midday Friday, January 5, NWS reports 10 to 18 inch snowfall totals in the southern Rockies before it made its way across Kansas.

Eye-Popping Snowfall Totals Possible

However, Rippey says this first snow system isn’t the headline. Early to mid-week next week, a different significant storm will emerge from the Southwest and Four Corners region, which could bring monstrous snowfall totals.

“That storm will be going across the Central and Southern Plains Monday and reach the lower Great Lakes region by Wednesday,” Rippey says. “That system really has the potential to create a wide degree of disarray across the country.”

(Farm Journal)

The storm early next week will pack a punch with high winds, but it will also bring much needed drought relief. NOAA is warning of weather impacts that will span from Coast to Coast. They report heavy snow is likely in the higher elevation with blizzard conditions possible. The high winds are expected to hit much of the Central and Eastern U.S., with some winds exceeding 50 MPH.

“Some of them can be big snow makers through parts of the Midwest and some of them are putting down some heavy rains across the South,” Snodgrass says. “And the big picture here is that our U.S. Drought Monitor, which still shows about 50% to 55% of the land area in some form of drought, about one-third of it in the drought categories, that could really change a lot in the coming weeks.”

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. Winter arrives finally. 10 days from now mountains, West, Plains, North BURIED! pic.twitter.com/EbPLLFlB74
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) January 5, 2024

The winter storm is forecasted to bring heavy snow, which could provide relief for winter wheat country.

“We’ve already chipped away at the drought across the Great Plains,” Rippey says. “If you look at USDA’s winter wheat condition, we saw improvement from the end of November to the end of December. Kansas winter wheat jumped from 32% good to excellent at the end of November to 43% in December. Oklahoma saw a big jump from 53% to 67% good to excellent. So more moisture, more snow - that’ll be good news for winter wheat.

(Farm Journal)

While the storm system will bring much needed relief, it could also pose problems for livestock producers.

“As the storm crosses the southern Great Plains and moves into the Midwest, we’re going to have a big wind-driven snow event. So certainly, some livestock stress. And then for the Southeast, those folks where it’s not a drought situation, they could be dealing with flooding and flash flooding, as well as our first significant severe weather outbreak of the season early next week,” Rippey says.

Euro model... 😳❄️🌨️ pic.twitter.com/PqZKmP7G0W
— Darin D. Fessler ✝️ (@DDFalpha) January 5, 2024

Much Need Moisture in Areas

As the south braces for impacts of the forecasted storms, Snodgrass says that moisture is desperately needed.

“The South has been, in my opinion, on the wildest ride with moisture in the last 24 months compared to any other place on the planet at this point,” he says.

And as this El Niño pattern takes hold, Snodgrass thinks cotton country could final see some relief this winter.

“I think the best chance for recovery and moisture is going to be across the South, pockets of the Mid-South, the Southeast and in the East Coast,” Snodgrass says. “That track from Texas to South Carolina to Maine, I like it. That area is going to be getting some good moisture.”

It’s not just snow that producers will need to brace for, but temperatures are forecast to plunge with a possible Artic blast. Weather models are pointing to extremely cold and extreme Arctic air also moving in.

Still watching historic climate emergency risk from Arctic blast 📉❄️🌡️

Overnight weather model [ECMWF HRES 00Z] still shows historic Arctic blast into the Pacific Northwest and Western U.S. in 6-7 days.

Extremely cold w/potential for snowfall along California coast including… pic.twitter.com/PsNLPAccdj
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 5, 2024

The Duration of El Niño

Snodgrass says the question is how long until El Niño fades, and the impact it could have on the spring.

“If El Niño peaks right now and begins to fade throughout the rest of winter and into spring, I’ve looked at every event since 1960, and most times when that happens, we tend to do okay in the Midwest the following year in terms of precipitation. That’s not a guarantee, but you look at historically, we tend to go out of ridge riding storms, which are often the types of storms that save crops,” he says.

That scenario, however, spells trouble for key growing areas of the South this spring and summer.

“The only way you can get a ridge riding storm system, though, is to put heat and drought across the South. That’s the Cotton Belt that could be impacted negatively by that,” Snodgrass says. “That’s all speculative. But that’s all you got this time of years to base it off of those bigger picture things.”

Areas of the Country Could Still Be Dry This Spring

With the active storms to start the year, there are still pockets of the country that need much more moisture to replenish dry soils before spring.

“I’m worried about the Northern Plains,” Snodgrass says. “I’m worried about the Canadian Prairie on drought. I’m worried about the lack of snowfall we’ve had so far in parts of the upper Midwest. We need to be piling a whole lot more snow there.”

The debate of just how long El Niño will last is heating up. There’s even talk of La Nina making a return this year. There’s no certainty either way, but for now, Snodgrass says a strong shot of winter weather isn’t a bad thing.

“I’ll just tell you this, the nastiest winters we’ve ever had, have almost always given us fantastic springs and summers,” he says. “So, I hate to say it, but I’m wishing for just a terrible second half of winter so that I can talk to you next spring summer and say, ‘Hey wasn’t that terrible? But now look what we got out of it.’”

Related News:

What impact did El Nino have on the weather in 2023?

No Bumper Hay Crop, 44% of the Cattle Inventory In Drought

Tue, 12 Sep 2023 19:53:14 GMT

Dry conditions persist across parts of the U.S., with nearly half of the nation’s corn crop and 37% of the nation’s hay crop areas experiencing drought, reports Clinton Griffiths on AgDay.

Specifically, several major growing areas and livestock production states, including Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri, are feeling drought pressure.

“Certainly, when you look at Missouri in particular, we’re down in hay production in 2023,” says Scott Brown, markets and policy professor and interim director of the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center at the University of Missouri. “Other states have recovered—some of the states that had more of a drought issue in 2022 than this year—but we’ve kind of been front and center of the dry weather that’s hurt pastures and hay and ponds.”

According to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), released on S ept. 12 , overall yield per acre in all hay harvested is forecast to be slightly higher from 2022 (2.28 tons per acre) to 2023 (2.29 tons per acre). Production across the U.S. iss also forecast to increase in 2023 by nearly four million ton.

However, as Brown notes, total hay production was expected to fall significantly short across some states compared to last year, including Iowa, Minnesota and Missouri.

Heading into the winter feeding months, tight hay supplies leading to further liquidation of cattle in these areas is cause for concern.

“It sure seems like, to me, that’s where we’re headed,” Brown adds. “It’s almost every segment of the industry that we can see that consolidation—all the way from the cow-calf level to the processing and retailers.”

Brown explains that the cattle industry’s large number of participants throughout the supply chain may need to coordinate—leading to concentration or consolidation of the industry.

Meanwhile, overall pasture and range conditions in the U.S. seem to be holding on to improving slightly over the 2023 growing season.

(Farm Journal)

The next few months could be pivotal for the cattle industry if drought persists, encouraging producers to further liquidate the cattle herd. As of now, 44% of the cattle inventory is in an area of drought—the highest percentage since the start of the season in late April, Griffiths reports.

Could Cattle Prices Soar Through Next Year? That's What Economists Think, And It Could Completely Change the Industry

Thu, 31 Aug 2023 16:03:46 GMT

The U.S. beef cow herd is now the lowest since 1962, and with the majority of ag economists now expecting rebuilding to take place until Q2 of 2024 or later, that means even higher cattle prices could be ahead. Ag economists say as the U.S. cattle herd continues to shrink due to drought and other pressures, the August Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor revealed it could also cause massive consolidation in the cattle industry, not only with cattle producers, but also meat processors.

The August survey is the third survey of the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , a joint effort between the University of Missouri and Farm Journal. The first-of-its-kind survey collects insights from ag economists across the U.S. Nearly 60 economists are asked each month to provide their forecasts and views. They represent a wide geography with expertise in grains, livestock and policy.

Cattle Prices Could Climb

Continued consolidation in livestock is a major concern for economists. The survey was completed on the heels of Tyson Foods and Smithfield announcing plant and farm closures for both pork and poultry . However, economists think consolidation in cattle will also be a major theme in 2024, and it could have an impact on major meat processors as ag economists think cattle prices could push even higher, a trend that could continue for at least another year.

The August survey also asked economists when they think cattle herd expansion will start to take place. The majority think cattle contraction will continue for at least another year. A smaller percentage think it could happen in the second quarter of 2024.

“It will probably be late 2025 or 2026 before we see significant increases in beef production. So if demand at all stays with us, we can be talking about these kinds of lofty prices for several months down the road,” says Brown. “I kind of wonder when we talk about changing structure whether or not the cow-calf industry will look different. So maybe bigger operations, perhaps some of the smaller beef cow operations will have retired. And we won’t see those back. So I’m curious to watch consolidation, what’s been probably the slowest segment of agriculture to consolidate over time.”

The survey shows ag economists think cattle prices could climb even higher over the next year.

“Not only have cattle prices been moving higher, but our economists have been upping their estimates of cattle prices to the tune of about $10 [per head] over the last couple of months,” says Scott Brown, interim director of the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center who also helps author the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor,. “So a lot more optimism. I think that just has a lot to do with the short supplies of cattle that we’re beginning to see in the marketplace.”

Brown says economists are still concerned about the lack of profitability currently projected for pork producers, but they are turning more optimistic on prices.

“As we’ve done the last couple of months, prices have recovered and economists’ outlooks have gotten a little brighter, even though we’re talking about some fairly low prices. Dairy is the one that still sticks out as the worst, and our survey basically shows not a lot of change for prices with a projected $20 (per cwt) for the all milk price forecast for the next 18 months or so. If the costs stay where they are today, it makes that a pretty tough industry to participate in.”

Massive Consolidation?

What factors could impact livestock prices over the next six months? The main theme continues to be tighter cattle supplies and demand.

“Beef cattle supplies will continue to tighten, and beef production will continue falling. Beef demand remains remarkably resilient,” says one ag economist.
“Factors impacting livestock prices include U.S. herd liquidation, global meat availability and domestic demand,” says another economist in the anonymous survey.
“Consumer demand will impact livestock prices the most in the next six months,” the survey reveals.

“We asked folks a lot about what they see as important in the livestock markets as we look ahead, and we did see that consolidation word come up, especially in cattle markets,” says Brown “So although we’re talking about record cattle prices, and maybe at some point record profitability, although not today, I think there’s a lot of concern about what this does for the industry long-term.

“I think packers are going to be in an awful difficult spot here for a period of time,” Brown adds. “Feedyards could also be in a tough spot. It’s tough to keep yards full with the lack of supplies of feeder cattle. So the idea is that these industries are going to continue to adjust. And I think 2021 and 2022 were just such phenomenal demand years that they almost masked what were some very high costs faced by all of the segments of the livestock industry.”

Consolidation Concerns

The survey also asked economists to explain the reasoning behind their herd expansion forecasts. Consolidation was also a major theme as economists explored what the current state of the cattle industry could mean for the future of agriculture.

“I do think consolidation of all parts of the beef industry is coming. I think this will be a time when some of our well-established 100-cow operations will think about exiting,” says one economist.
“We will see prices that significantly surpass 2014-2015. Processing plants will consolidate due to fewer cattle available to process. Producers will be slower to expand than in 2014-2015 because of continued drought and higher borrowing costs. I expect the high prices to last longer than in 2014-15,” says another economist.
“Further reductions in slaughter will put continued pressure on beef processors while boosting prices for cattle producers,” one economist says in the anonymous survey.
“The impact of the smallest beef cow herd in 60 years will likely put pressure on processing and retail margins, may give a more competitive advantage to competing proteins, and could result in a smaller industry going forward,” one economist says.

The ag economists surveyed expect net farm income to hit $125 billion to $130 billion. According to Brown, that’s not the record $160.2 billion U.S. agriculture saw two years ago, but Brown points out that it’s still high.

“It just reminds me to say not as good as where we were a couple of years ago, but also maybe not as tough as some would have thought once we started to see these lower prices,” says Brown.

Corn vs. Soybeans Price Projections

Ag economists are more optimistic about soybean pries than they are corn prices, and one of the main reasons is demand. According to the latest Monthly Monitor, economists indicate soybean prices will trend higher not just this year but also for the 2024/25 crop. For corn, the survey shows the opposite with the expectation for corn prices to fall.

“On the crops side, the one to be optimistic about is soybeans,” says Brown. “According to the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, economists say soybean demand is certainly stronger than we might see in a commodity like corn, as biofuels and renewable diesel will all continue to maybe drive some crushed demand as we look ahead.”

(Farm Journal)

Brown says, as a result, economists are also more optimistic on soybean prices moving forward compared to corn. Part of the concerns are due to an expectation for yields to increase, but the other is the negative outlook for demand.

“On the corn side, a little less optimism. I would say weak demand exports, in particular, seem to be a lot of what we have answered back from the survey. And the expected corn prices in the next 18 months ahead over the last three surveys certainly show a downward trend in what folks expect on the corn side,” says Brown.

Economists say the biggest impacts on crop prices will come from:

Demand domestically (including for feed grains) and abroad (particularly in China)
War in the Black Sea if shipments from Russia are curtailed
El Nino presence and weather in major crop production areas of the world
Strong competition in the international corn export market and U.S. export levels
U.S. crop acreage stable, better yields pushing down prices

Overall Outlook for the Ag Economy

Brown says the monthly survey shows economists’ views of the ag economy haven’t changed much in the three months of conducting the survey. The August data show economists are:

5% less optimistic about the health of the ag economy a year from now relative to today
10% less optimistic when looking at the ag economy today versus 12 months ago

(Farm Journal)

“I think the biggest thing to note is just how resilient we’ve been. And that shows in some of the answers we got back from the economists,” says Brown. “Although there’s been lots of concern about consumer demand and international demand for a lot of our commodities, the ag economy has been resilient.”

What Will Drive the Ag Economy Over the Next 12 Months?

The economists turned more bullish on livestock in the latest survey, while the outlook for corn prices produced more pessimism. But economists continue to be impressed with how farmers and ranchers have withstood higher costs on their operation.

“The financial strength on many farms is rather strong and many have taken advantage of relatively high prices for crops and cattle. Hogs and poultry are in somewhat worse shape now than last year. Looking ahead, I expect that lower crop prices and stable input prices will put a squeeze on high-cost crop producers. Consolidation across all of agriculture is something I expect to be a theme in the year ahead,” says one ag economist in the anonymous survey.

“We’re seeing an explosion of competitive production coming out of Brazil at the same time that geopolitical risks are increasing in a world facing mounting credit risks,” was how one economist responded to the question.

“The current most-important factors are weather and input costs. In one year from now, it will be Brazilian production policy,” says another economist.

“Agriculture is benefitting from somewhat lower input prices, but weather is creating challenges in production. During the next 12 months production costs should continue to moderate, but prices are also moderating so that the net change is slightly positive. A new farm bill needs to be completed to create more certainty and reduce revenue risk,” is another response from the anonymous survey.

Projecting the Positives Pieces for the Ag Economy

(Farm Journal)

With so much concern about international competition and domestic demand, economists also pointed out some positives in the ag economy, including farmland values and the U.S. economy.

“The land value market has a lot of supportive fundamentals under it and will withstand a couple years of negative farm income. As a result, farm balance sheets will stay rather healthy and those that have available working capital and cash will be positioned well,” says one economist.
“At least so far, the U.S. economy has proven more resilient in 2023 than many had anticipated,” was another response in the monthly survey.
“Lower fertilizer costs and a relatively stable U.S. economy,” says another economist.
“I see strong international markets for pork and beef as the most positive aspect regarding the outlook of U.S. agriculture,” one economist says.

John Phipps: Why Water is the New Oil for Landowners

Wed, 09 Aug 2023 13:38:50 GMT

There are signs that water is the new oil.

This is a question sent in by U.S. Farm Report viewer David Marshall of Lafayette, Indiana: “You’ve covered the subject of foreign land ownership and rightly noted that it’s a very small percentage. I think the issue that we really need to address, especially in the southwestern states, is the purchasing of farmland by corporate entities that have nothing to do with farming but who solely want to obtain the water rights that the purchase of the ground includes. Their main reason for purchasing the land is to have a resource that they can sell to the highest bidder. How long before hedge funds and corporations own all the water rights and the farmer and the public are left to be the highest bidder or do without the needed resource?”

As Mark Twain said, “Whiskey is for drinking, water is for fighting”. While our arguably arcane water rights laws have provided thousands of billable hours for water lawyers in the West, I don’t think we’ve seen anything yet.

“First in time, first in line” may have seemed like a good idea centuries ago when rivers and groundwater appeared inexhaustible, the enormous use by modern agriculture - about 80% of our nation’s resources - is testing the practicality of those laws. I can’t imagine modern lawmakers reforming our laws with the needed speed, so the backup method of acquisition for water consumers is to buy the water needed from agriculture.

Bluntly put, there is a price for every gallon, and many farmers are just now realizing how extremely valuable those gallons are.

As I have argued in every land-use debate -from solar panels to suburban development - with rare exceptions due to location or unique qualities, the rights of landowners should be preeminent to allow the market to redistribute those assets.

Consider the rapidly growing cities of the Southwest, like Phoenix. Spending millions to buy water rights from nearby farmers currently growing alfalfa in the desert to feed dairy cows, when milk is being dumped in Wisconsin, looks to me like an inefficient market hampered by regulation and unable to rationally allocate assets.

Between our outdated milk pricing programs and water laws, the outcome you describe is capitalism’s way of solving a problem. Farming may always be the optimal use for our ever-scarcer water.

I think not, but I think this is a problem being solved by accountants, not lawyers.

The U.S. Now Has a Nearly 90% Chance of Seeing El Niño This Summer

Wed, 24 May 2023 18:52:06 GMT

La Niña’s punishing drought left scars that will be etched in the minds of farmers in the West and Plains for years to come. As El Niño looks to make its grand return, significant weather changes could be on deck for U.S. farmers this year.

USDA’s May crop production forecast already incorporated some of the positive weather developments, penciling in record national yields of 181.5 bu. per acre for corn yield and 52 bu. per acre on soybeans.

“The thing you’ve got to remember about the new crop balance sheet is that everything in all of the new crop balance sheets is contingent on weather,” said Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “USDA is assuming normal or favorable weather in regard to crop production.”

(Farm Journal)

The biggest change is El Niño, which is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Forecasters at NOAA are watching the weather transition closely, and watching the timing of when the full weather development will hit the U.S.

“The signs of El Niño development that we saw last month have only grown stronger this month,” NOAA said in a blog post this week . “Additionally, we’ve pushed one more month through the dreaded spring predictability barrier. Taken together, these signals have allowed forecasters to increase their forecast confidence this month, with the likelihood of El Niño approaching 90% by summer and exceeding 90% through next fall and winter.”

(Farm Journal)

NOAA says the April average sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region, which is the primary monitoring region for ENSO, was 0.1 °C above the long-term average, which covers 1991-2020. NOAA says that value is up 0.2 °C from March and is the first time the monthly Niño-3.4 temperature was warmer than average since April of 2020.

While most headlines highlight how it can bring historic heat around the globe, agricultural meteorologist Eric Snodgrass says it also tends to bring favorable growing conditions for crops in the Midwest.

“Should it manifest itself and be the most dominant, what we call teleconnection in the pattern, we would likely be seeing a better year overall,” said Snodgrass, the Principal Atmospheric Scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions.

Will the summer weather be like any other in history? Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, cautions farmers to be careful, because it all depends on timing.

“The El Niño for 2023 will be developing and not established which is why we [World Weather, Inc.] believe the drier bias may be farther to the west in the Midwest this year due to the strong influence of negative PDO and the more underdeveloped influence from El Niño,” he said.

(Farm Journal)

As El Niño continues to creep into the picture, Snodgrass says El Niño summers tend to produce strong crop yields.

“Since 1970, we’ve had 17 El Niño summers and 14 of them had trendline yields slightly above that. This means we generally think of El Niño summers of having a more juicy atmosphere, or more stuff for thunderstorms, so we’ll keep a close eye on it,” he says.

That greenhouse-like growing weather won’t be the case across the U.S. Lerner says the summer will likely have a warmer and drier bias across the Plains, the western Corn Belt and into the Great Lakes region.

“Shots of cooler air will move through the eastern Midwest in late May, late June and late August. The west may cool down for a little while, but it should heat back up faster than the eastern Midwest,” says Lerner. “The northern Plains will be wetter biased in the balance of May and early June with the wetter bias shifting to the west and north during July and August. That should favor Montana, western and northern Dakota and areas to the north. The southern Plains (favoring Texas) will be a little wetter biased in late May and early June and again during August and September.”

Lerner said the states he’s most worried about in terms of summer moisture are Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska and Kansas He thinks the best chance of moisture could fall across northern Plains, upper Midwest and eastern most corn belt, the southeastern states, the lower Delta, Texas and a part of southern Oklahoma.

“There is a strong association with abating multi-year La Niña events that occur in this solar cycle with negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with below average Midwest precipitation,” Lerner said. “This trend tends to occur in most spring seasons when these conditions have been present. However, the bias tends to be more significant in the central and eastern Midwest than in the western Midwest. Western Midwest weather tends to be wetter in these years than areas farther to the east and we are likely to see a short-term increase in western Midwest precipitation in the balance of May until the summer ridge evolves and begins to prevail.”

Drought and Forage Challenges Continue in 2023

Tue, 16 May 2023 13:55:42 GMT

Persistent drought in major beef cattle production regions continues to have a significant impact on the cattle industry despite improvements in drought conditions in other parts of the country. USDA-NASS released two reports recently that indicate that forage challenges continue in the central and southern Great Plains.

The weekly Crop Progress reports include range and pasture conditions in each state, from May-October each year. The U.S. average of poor to very poor pasture conditions in early May was 37 percent, less severe than one year ago across the country. The first week of May showed that the worst pasture conditions, measured as the percent poor and very poor, are in the states of Kansas (64 percent); Nebraska (68 percent); Oklahoma (54 percent) and Texas (52 percent). Kansas and Oklahoma are in significantly worse shape this year compared to last year with poor/very poor ratings of 41 and 39 percent, respectively one year ago. The Nebraska rating slightly improved from last year at 68 versus 73 percent poor/very poor, while Texas is less bad compared to the 74 percent poor to very poor rating one year ago.

The latest monthly crop production report from NASS also included the December and May 1 hay stocks. For the beginning of the hay crop year, May 1, U.S. hay stocks were down 13.4 percent year over year and were down 26.4 percent from the ten-year 2012-2021 average. Compared to the ten-year average, in Kansas, May 1 hay stocks were down 25.5 percent; Nebraska was down 51.6 percent; Oklahoma was down 62.3 percent; and Texas was down 41.3 percent. Collectively, these four states account for 25 percent of U.S. May 1 hay stocks on average. In 2023, these four states accounted for 18.7 percent of total May 1 hay stocks and are down by 44.9 percent compared to the ten-year average for the four-state total.

Not only were the May 1 hay stocks very limited in these states, but continued drought is impacting 2023 hay production. On average, the states of Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas account for about 21 percent of total U.S. hay production. These states ranked (1) Texas; (4) Nebraska; (5) Kansas; and (7) Oklahoma for hay production in the last decade. Reduced hay production this year in this region has implications well beyond the borders of these four states.

These four states accounted for 9.3 million beef cows on January 1, 2023, just over 32 percent of the total U.S. beef cow herd and include four of the top ten beef cow states, Texas (1), Oklahoma (2), Nebraska (4) and Kansas (6). Delayed, slow and limited pasture and hay growth in these areas is likely still provoking some cattle liquidation. Total beef cow slaughter through April this year is down 11.2 percent from last year’s elevated level. However, it is likely that reduced beef cow slaughter in drought-free areas is masking some additional herd liquidation in these worst drought areas. In Oklahoma, for example, the auction volume of cull cows and bulls is up 21.9 percent year over year for the first 19 weeks of 2023. The much-anticipated herd rebuilding and corresponding market conditions in the beef cattle industry cannot begin in earnest until drought conditions ease significantly in these major beef cattle states.

Derrell Peel, OSU Extension livestock marketing specialist, explains why rising beef prices could be on the way on SunUp TV at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R5XX_nzVnXo

USDA Just Provided the First National Snapshot of Pasture Conditions, And It Hints at More Cow Culling Ahead

Wed, 10 May 2023 18:27:13 GMT

Pasture and range conditions across the U.S. have improved since last year, but conditions are poor in the Plains. As Kansas sets records for the worst conditions in history, one livestock economist thinks more cow culling could happen this year.

USDA’s first national look at pasture and range conditions shows 33% is rated good to excellent and 37% is poor to very poor. While the picture has improved from last year, a deeper dive shows some states are rivaling the worst conditions since 2013.

(Farm Journal)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says Kansas currently has the lowest rangeland/pasture condition on record for the modern era, which is based on the Condition Index.

“For this time of year, we’re running pretty close to – but a little lower than – spring 2013,” Rippey says. “For Kansas, you can see several two- to three-year pairings of low rangeland/pasture conditions, which includes 2002-03, 2011-13, and 2022-23.”

(Farm Journal)

Even with some recent rain, western Kansas is still waiting on moisture. As the entire Plains region works to dig out from the drought, Oklahoma State Extension Livestock Specialist Derrell Peel says the cattle herd could continue to shrink.

“I expect there is still some culling continuing,” Peel says. “Producers who eked through the winter likely face more culling with the lack of pasture and hay growth now. Beef cow slaughter is down from last year but is likely still higher than it would be without continuing drought.”

Peel points out recent rains helped in some areas, but it’s temporary.

“Without follow-up moisture it will be just a delay in more decisions,” he says. “I don’t think the rain extended too far up into Kansas, but most of Oklahoma got a decent rain. Cattle water is still an issue as well, especially with temps climbing for summer. The recent rain didn’t refill any ponds.”

If you talk to any livestock producer in that area, they’ll tell you the pond levels are scary low. With grazing conditions so poor, it’s only aiding to the tough decisions cattle producers in those areas will be forced to make.

“What is going to happen is already cast,” Peel says. “The drought may extend it further with some additional culling. The bigger drought question is timing: Will we move into El Nino conditions by late summer, at least so next year looks better even if it’s too late for this summer? Once we for sure stop getting worse, we will start rebuilding and that means sharply lower cow culling and increased heifer retention. That will take the already climbing cattle prices to a much higher level.”

(Farm Journal)

Peel says the timing of that is uncertain, but he thinks it could start this fall and extend into most of next year.

“This chart shows we are just on the left side of something similar to 2014-2015 … the prices that occurred during the last rebuilding. Prices will go even higher this time,” Peel says.

Cattle Cycle Uncertainty Looms As Drought Kicks Expansion Down the Road

Mon, 01 May 2023 13:18:16 GMT

The release of the Jan. 1 beef cow inventory to start 2023 painted a bleak picture—the result of widespread drought and herd liquidation across much of the nation in 2022.

In the ongoing cattle cycle—years of expansion followed by contraction—2022 proved to be a hard-hitting contraction year, as beef cow inventory reached a 60-year low.

The current cycle, which started in 2014, also following a significant drought, provided five years of steady expansion in beef cow numbers. However, only to be hit by another drought in 2020, the descent began.

Provided by USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), the following graph shows the total beef cow numbers by year, separating each cattle cycle by the expansion and contraction phases.

(Farm Journal)

While each cycle has a slightly varied length, it tends to evolve gradually and last between eight to 12 years in length—following the biological nature of beef cattle production and cattle producers’ responses to price changes and weather conditions.

Drought Influence on Beef Cow Inventory

According to USDA-ERS, on Jan. 1, 2023, U.S. beef cow inventory was 28.9 million head – 3.6% less than the previous year.

Meanwhile, nearly 93% of U.S. beef cows were located in states where most of the pasture and range were rated in “very poor” to “fair” condition, based on USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) data. Consequently, cattle producers faced record-high prices for non-alfalfa hay during the last two quarters of 2022 and in each month through the beginning of 2023, USDA-NASS reports .

As feed costs to maintain cattle continue to stress cattle producers’ bottom lines, a recent National Weather Service (NWS) forecast brings hope to some and more heartache to others.

The Season Drought Outlook , provided by the NWS Climate Prediction Center suggests drought is likely to persist in areas such as southeast Colorado and much of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, as these areas are so entrenched with drought that improvement will be difficult. The highest confidence for improvement exists across North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, eastern Montana and Wyoming, the outlook adds.

Markets React

In the midst of what he claims to be “the bull market of his career,” Brad Kooima, co-owner of Kooima Kooima Varilek in Sioux Center, Iowa, says in a recent interview , “We’re going into the best demand period of the whole year.”

As this spring brings an increased demand in beef for consumers anticipating the season of summer grilling and barbeques, Koomia says the cattle on feed are not finishing as quickly as planned, due to severe weather. The tightness in supply may finally be trumping the packer who needs inventory, he adds.

The most recent USDA cattle on feed report , released April 21, shows cattle on feed totaled 11.6 million head on April 1, down 4.4% year over year, with 7.12 million steers (down 6%) and 4.5 million heifers (down 2%).

As drought persists, Derrell Peel, livestock economist and marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, suggests that some producers may need to cull additional cows if conditions do not improve in the next few months. This will keep feeder supplies tight and prices well supported.

Meanwhile, Lee Schulz, Iowa State University Extension livestock economist, questions if the current cattle cycle looks like some of those in history where periods of declines in inventory and relatively strong prices held for several years. Or, he wonders, will the industry repeat the last cycle, where profits and higher prices are bid away rather quickly with dramatic expansion.

With year nine of the current cattle cycle well underway, the trend in beef cow inventory looks to remain fairly stable albeit with a continued, general decline in cattle inventory – a process that has been in place since 1975.

Will 2023 be another year of contraction and continued pushing off of a new cycle and the switch to expansion?

The coming months, specifically in weather patterns and pasture conditions, will likely help determine this year’s fate.

Punishing Drought Now Expected to Persist Through July Across Texas, Plains

Fri, 21 Apr 2023 13:05:34 GMT

The updated Seasonal Drought Outlook for the U.S. is painting a grim picture for many drought-plagued areas of the Plains. While the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts drought to persist from Kansas to Texas, forecasters also expect drought to improve in parts of Nebraska and Iowa and even disappear in some areas.

The NWS Climate Prediction Center points out the drought situation across the country has dramatically improved for many areas. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought is currently near its lowest point since July 2020. Drought peaked in October of 2022 at nearly 63% of the country, and since then, it’s steadily declined across much of the West, northern Great Plains, Midwest, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

(Farm Journal)

Areas of the country seeing relentless drought conditions growing even worse are western Kansas, western Oklahoma and the western half of Texas. This week’s Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates those geographies hardest-hit by drought won’t see much change through July.

“Persistence is more likely for southeast Colorado and much of Kansas with drought so well entrenched in these areas that improvement will be difficult,” the Seasonal Drought Outlook stated. “The highest confidence for removal exists across the Dakotas, Nebraska, eastern Montana and Wyoming.”

Agricultural meteorologist Eric Snodgrass thinks parts of Kansas, Nebraska and Colorado could see better chances for precipitation as we head into May. He thinks those increased chances of could also fall across Oklahoma and Texas.

“This is going to be something we’re going to watch very, very carefully because of the extensive drought in that area,” says Snodgrass, the Principal Atmospheric Scientist with Nutrien Ag Solutions. “So, we have to kind of balance it out. Right. We need the moisture in those areas. We need the moisture in the western Corn Belt, but it is slowing down some of this early season fieldwork.”

What Does the Drought of 2022 Mean for Lactating Pairs in the Spring of 2023?

Wed, 15 Mar 2023 16:09:31 GMT

As of February, some parts of the U.S. remain in drought conditions. In many cases, the soil moisture profile is in a deficit due to months of below normal precipitation the last couple of years, which will have an impact on grass growth this spring.

Range Ecologists are Recommending Delayed Turn Out

Range ecologists are recommending delayed turn out to give the grass a chance to recover from the hard hitting drought conditions of last summer. Producers who choose to delay turn out need to feed a diet that meets the needs of the cow for lactation, for returning to estrus, and if turn out is delayed more than a month, the nutritional needs of the calf beyond milk consumption.

Total Digestible Nutrients (TDN) Requirements Increase over 50% from Late Gestation to Peak Lactation

The energy requirements (typically measured as TDN in cow diets) increase over 50% from late gestation when the fetus is rapidly growing, to peak lactation, which is generally 8 weeks postpartum. Additionally, a cow must rebreed within 85 days to stay on a 365-d calving interval. In a normal year, lush green grass would exceed the nutrient needs for the lactating cow and make the return to estrus in a timely manner very likely. In a confinement situation, the diet fed must meet those requirements.

Saving the Best Hay and Increasing the Winter Protein Supplement - Does that Meet Her Needs?

If a producer fed 28 lb (as fed basis) of high quality hay (58% TDN; 13% CP) and 3.5 lb of 20% protein cubes to a 1400 lb lactating cow, the cow’s protein needs would likely be met, but the energy provided would fall short, causing the cow to lose weight. The cold winter coupled with many inches of snow cover across most of Nebraska has made it difficult for cows to maintain body condition over the winter. Therefore, using extra body condition as an energy source while deferring grazing may not be an option for some cows.

Total Mixed Ration (TMR) Option

If producers have a way to grind, mix, and feed a TMR, this can be a viable option. University of Nebraska Extension Beef Team personnel can assist producers with developing specific rations with the commodities they have. However, an example diet for a lactating 1400 lb cow would include 19 lb of residue or poor quality hay, 17 lb of silage, 26 lb of wet distillers grains and a mineral package (per cow on an as fed basis). This diet meets the needs of the cows, but is a little bit limiting in dry matter intake to reduce costs, so producers will want to provide at least 2.5-3 ft of bunk space per pair to provide all cows and calves an equal chance at the feed, as calves will come to feed with the cows.

Consuming Feed in Addition to Milk is Critical for Rumen Development in the Calf

P>If grazing were deferred until June, a March-born calf would be three months old by the time grazing was available. This calf would likely be eating at least 1% of its body weight in forage on a dry matter basis. Therefore, a 300 lb calf would eat about 6 lb (as fed basis) of the example TMR above in addition to milk from the cow. Another option producers might consider is providing a creep gate to allow the calf access to their own TMR in a different pen, or a creep feeder in which they provided a commercial creep feed. Feed costs need to be evaluated as pelleted and bagged feeds tend to be more expensive than mixing a diet from bulk commodities on site.

Other Considerations for the Confined Calf

Confined calves are likely exposed to a higher pathogen load than grazing calves. Therefore, another advantage to a creep gate into their own pen is that it allows them space away from the cows, which can reduce pathogen exposure. Another advantage is that it allows the producer to offer the calves their own water source designed so that they can always reach the water level. A windbreak or shelter may also be provided.

Producers who are planning to confine pairs to defer grazing may want to consult with their local veterinarian to develop a herd health protocol and a nutritionist or beef focused extension personnel to develop diets with available commodities appropriate for confined pairs.

Managing Cows Through Dry Conditions: What Options Do I Have?

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 18:44:12 GMT

Hot, dry conditions in early summer have taken a toll on grass growth in much of the Great Plains this year. There are several options cattle producers may want to consider to conserve grass in these dry areas. Every producer should have a drought plan that includes trigger dates and a culling strategy, but once those top cuts are made, what feeding options are there for the core herd?

Can I just supplement the cows on pasture and save grass that way?

Yes and no. Providing a protein supplement such as range cubes or distillers grains will certainly help the cows maintain body condition, but supplying a protein supplement will actually allow the cows to digest low quality forage better and therefore, increase forage consumption, which is the exact opposite of the goal.

However, research has shown that mixing wet distillers and poor quality forage or crop residues can replace some grass consumption, but will likely not result in a pound for pound intake replacement of grass. Most ethanol plants are back to operating at full or near full capacity, so wet distillers grains may be readily available for some producers. For more information on forage replacement on pasture see Crop Residues or Low Quality Hay Combined with Byproducts as a Forage Substitute.

What are my options for feeding in confinement?

If a producer has February/March born calves, early weaning may be an option. This allows the producer to put the calves on a high quality diet so that the desired rate of gain is maintained, and the now dry cows will have a much lower energy requirement with the cessation of lactation, making them very easy to maintain on a limit fed diet in confinement. Management of Early Weaned Calves may be helpful if calves are early weaned.

If a producer has April/May born calves or simply prefers not to early wean, then pairs can be maintained in confinement, but several management issues need to be considered. Cow-calf pairs can be confined on pivot corners or fallow ground or a winter feed ground if desired. Calves will need to have access to feed as well, so supplying 2 feet of feeding space for the cows and 1 foot for the calves is important. Cows can be limit fed an energy dense diet mixed with poor quality forages but the diet needs to meet the demands of lactation.

Producers can visit with their Extension personnel to develop a diet to meet the cow’s requirements. Unfortunately, poor quality residues are more difficult to digest for the young calf, so producers may want to consider a creep area for the calves where they are allowed to graze or are fed a diet higher in digestibility that is off limits to the cows. All calves need access to a water source which is important for hydration and rumen development even if the calf is nursing. Calves born in confinement in July and August might also benefit from a source of shade. For more information on managing production cows in confinement, see Management Considerations for Beef Cows in Confinement.

Should I be concerned about the breeding season for my late spring calving cows?

Research has shown that cows breed back best on an increasing plane of nutrition. Therefore, if hot dry conditions produce grass that is mature a month ahead of schedule and grass availability is limited, then cows grazing in July and August could be experiencing a declining plane of nutrition, which could be detrimental to conception rates. Supplemental feed could be warranted, especially for the young cows nursing their first calf.

Very few cattle management decisions are easy. Culling decisions can often be clouded with emotion during difficult times. It is very important to evaluate the cost of feeding the cows as opposed to culling the cows to make the best long term management decision.

Read More:

What Are My Options When I Am Out of Grass?

Tips To Manage What’s Left of Drought Pastures

Third AFBF Survey Reveals Stark Reality of Western Drought

Mon, 29 Aug 2022 16:31:21 GMT

Persistent drought continues to hammer farmers and ranchers in Western, Central and Southern Plains states, with far-reaching implications for not only farmers’ and ranchers’ bottom lines, but also food availability and affordability.

The third edition of AFBF’s Assessing Western Drought Conditions survey illustrates many ground-level drought impacts, including expected reduction in yields, removing or destroying orchard trees or multi-year crops, and selling off portions of herds and flocks.

The survey, which was also conducted last summer, in June 2021 and October 2021, included more than 600 responses from county and state Farm Bureau leaders, staff and members in 15 states from Texas to North Dakota to California. Together, these states contribute nearly half of the U.S.’s agricultural production by value.

Nearly three out of four respondents rated a reduction in harvest yields as prevalent or higher, while two out of three respondents reported prevalence of selling off portions of herds or flocks.

“We have sold half our herd and may not be able to feed the remaining,” said a Texas producer in the open-ended question portion of the survey. “The ones we sold only brought 60-70 percent of what we bought them for in 2021.”

Across the surveyed region, respondents expected average crop yields to be down 38% this year because of drought conditions. One Arizona farmer commented, “Many of the fields near us are now fallow. Cropland is being converted to housing developments at an alarming rate. Over 10,000 new homes are expected within a 10-mile radius of my house—most within a 5-mile radius, all on cropland or former dairies. It is frustrating and alarming. Where will the food come from if we grow houses instead of food?”

AFBF President Zippy Duvall reacted, “The effects of this drought will be felt for years to come, not just by farmers and ranchers but also by consumers. Many farmers have had to make the devastating decision to sell off livestock they have spent years raising or destroy orchard trees that have grown for decades. Long-term solutions to drought mitigation must be discussed and implemented to ensure farmers in drought-prone regions can continue to provide safe, affordable and abundant food for their states and the rest of the country.”

Cattle Producers Face Relentless Heat and Drought, Hard Decisions To Be Made

Sat, 30 Jul 2022 21:05:24 GMT

The summer months tend to be considered ‘slower’ times at livestock auctions. This year, producers across droughty areas line up for miles .

Like many others, the Seguin Cattle Company livestock auction barn in Texas has seen an influx in cattle coming to town.

Bryan Luensmann, manager of the salebarn, says the extreme heat and drought is forcing thousands of cattle ranchers to sell off their herds.

Being in the cattle business this summer, has “pretty much a roller coaster ride,” Luensmann says. “It’s been chaotic.”

Federal forecasters say this is the second driest year around the Seguin area in the past 128 years.

Local cattle ranchers describe the challenges they face in short feed supplies.

“We’re just trying to reduce numbers, and trying to reduce how many we are feeding. Because, there is no grass, and the hay we have is not going to last us through the winter,” explains Priscilla McBee, a small family cattle rancher. “It’s hard. Our fields are barren.”

Cattle rancher, Marty Schwarzkopf, usually sells 4000-6000 bales of hay to ranchers each year. This year, he’s only baled about 300.

“I feel for a lot of people. They’ve been doing this for years and years, and now, they don’t have anything to hold on to. They’re having to let go,” Schwarzkopf says.

The last time cows went to town in these kinds of numbers was in 2011, says Clinton Griffiths, host of AgDay.

Comparing the current situation to 2011, producers and market analysts describe this year as much different than a decade ago.

“There’s just no place, really anywhere in the country, that’s got any excess hay supply,” says Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University livestock marketing specialist. “I think that’s going to limit what we can do in terms of sourcing hay. It’s going to limit what we can do in terms of relocating some cows, compared to that drought [in 2011 and 2012].”

“Year-to-date, beef cow slaughter is up 14% while inventory is down 2.4%,” says Michelle Rook, AgDay market reporter.

Peel adds, liquidation will likely continue as there is no relief in sight in the most recent 30-day outlook.

“We’ll probably lose another one million beef cows this year, or potentially even a little bit more than that,” Peel says.

Heifer slaughter is also up 4% with inventory down 3.5%, as more heifers are being placed in feedlots versus being kept for breeding, which is key as it indicates the lack of herd rebuilding, Peel adds.

Drovers Drought Webinar is Wednesday – Register Here

Mon, 25 Jul 2022 23:31:53 GMT

The devastating drought of 2022 has already had a significant impact on America’s cattle producers with more on the way. Oklahoma State agricultural economist Derrell Peel will provide an update on how the drought has already hit as hard as the 2011-12 drought, and why cow numbers may even dip lower than that low point seen a decade ago.

REGISTER HERE

Drovers Editorial director Greg Henderson will talk with four panelists about how they are managing current conditions, how the drought is affecting both the short-term and long-term operation of their businesses and their vision for moving forward.

Panelists include:

Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University

Joe Leathers, 6666 Ranch, Texas

John Bradley, Cow-calf producer and former extension agent Tennessee

Steve Hanson, Nebraska Cattlemen president elect.

Tony Toso, Mariposa County, California and current CCA president

Join us on Wednesday, July 27, 2022 at 3 p.m. CST!

REGISTER HERE

John Phipps: Why Can't the U.S. Figure Out a Way to Move Water From the Great Lakes to the West?

Thu, 21 Jul 2022 13:48:05 GMT

Regular viewer Eric Smassanow asks a question that pops up from often during droughts:

“Why has the government never taken action besides Lake Mead to move water around the country like we do energy? Seems like there are many times pumping water west from the east would help both regions.”

As the western US continues to suffer a 22-year megadrought, it is hard not to look at a map and zero in on the Great Lakes as the obvious solution. All we need to do is pump some of that excess fresh water west – like this idea from William Shatner to pump Lake Superior water to the Green River and on to Lake Mead. After all the Great Lakes are one of the largest sources of fresh water in the world.

This idea faces some huge hurdles.

California alone uses the same amount of water as the entire Red River flow. Even supplying a fraction of that would take pipes beyond imagination. Canals would suffer enormous evaporative loss. The water would have to be pumped over the Rocky Mountains – a roughly 6000 foot lift.

July Farm Country Forecast: Hot Like a Firecracker

Thu, 14 Jul 2022 20:42:05 GMT

Unfortunately, the heat, humidity and dry conditions of early summer look to extend into the next few months.

Widespread moderate drought and abnormal dryness continued to form and expand across a large swath of the eastern U.S. this week, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor . In addition, a few areas of severe drought are expanding.

Spotty rain and storms occurred across the East, but in areas that missed out on heavy rainfall, high temperatures, browning lawns, and curling corn signaled that rapid drying was taking place.

(Farm Journal)

Watch AgDay’s Weather Forecast for July and beyond:

For July, Matt Yarosewick, AgDay meteorologist, says to expect above-normal temperatures over most of the lower 48 states, from parts of the central and southern Rockies down through the Southwest through much of Texas and the Gulf Coast.

“Then if we look at the precipitation through July, expect drought to keep growing east of really Texas, Kansas and Oklahoma up into the Midwest parts and into of the Corn Belt,” he says.

For August, September and October, Yarosewick says most of the country will see above or well-above normal temperatures.

(Farm Journal)

In terms of precipitation, he says the July conditions of below-normal showers and storms will continue through early fall.

(Farm Journal)

“It will be very, very dry right in the center of the country and even back into the northern Plains and Northern Rockies,” he says. “That could really amplify the drought, especially as we head all the way through this harvest season. As we get closer to harvest, things are going to really start to dry out, unfortunately.”

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook shows soil moisture has decreased considerably across the Mississippi Valley and central Corn Belt, increasing vulnerability to short-term rapid drought development through July.

Given the forecasts favoring above-average temperatures, drought developing in this region would be favored to persist through the end of September, according to the Climate Prediction Center.

(Farm Journal)

Read More

Dry Weather Status in 4 Maps: Could We See a Flash Drought?

Summer Solstice Sparks Beginning of Flash Drought in the Midwest

Third Year of La Niña on the Horizon as Drought Continues in the Plains

The U.S. Just Broke a 27-Week Drought Streak, But Forecasts Don't Look Promising

Fri, 03 Jun 2022 15:46:25 GMT

Less than 50% of the continental U.S. is in moderate- or D1- drought conditions for the first time since November. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor showed a slight improvement in drought conditions across the U.S., but forecasts show drought could grow over the summer months.

USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey says the 27-week streak in drought conditions means the all-time record of 42 weeks during 2012/2013 still stands. However, the drought picture isn’t pretty in the West, with another streak still on the record books.

“We have edged below 50%. The national number at this point coming in at just under that 50% mark, but we still have another streak going and that is more than 40% of the country and drought. That streak has now reached 88 consecutive weeks going all the way back to late September of 2020. And that is far and away in all-time record previous record was also set during the drought of 2012 and 2013 of 68 consecutive weeks.”

(Farm Journal)

Recent rains have blanked the parts of the Plains, partially easing some drought concerns, but Rippey says the rains in the Southern Plains may not last.

“I wish I had better news on the outlook for the south-central and southwestern United States,” says Rippey. “But unfortunately, indications are that we could regrade or reverse back into a hotter, drier pattern as we move into the mid- to late summer. We have certainly seen some encouraging signs across the Southern Plains in May and even into early June. The longer-term outlooks indicate that heat and drought will continue to be a problem in the mid- to late summer.”

(Farm Journal)

Rippey says that means some of the recent improvements in the drought monitor may have been lost due to triple-digit heat, as well as strong winds. The forecast shows more heat and wind for those areas in the near-term.

“I was looking at some forecasts for the next seven days and triple-digit heat will plague much of Texas, with purple-shaded areas expecting high temperatures of 104 degrees F or greater,” says Rippey, in talking about the latest GFS weather model.

Rippey points out the latest Crop Progress report shows a stark drought picture still sitting in Texas with:

70% of Texas ranch land and pastures rated very poor to poor;
more than 40% of the cotton and grain sorghum rated very poor to poor;
and 29% of the corn and cotton rated very poor to poor.

“With the rains beginning to fall in some of those areas, there is hope we can turn things around. The plants are young. There is a chance to reverse some of the earlier problems there. But it’s going to take more rainfall. If it cuts off again, we’re not going to see things come back,” says Rippey.

“Another thing to point out is that we continue to deal with these periods of excessive heat very early in the season across the south-central United States. Even though we’ve seen rain and continue to see rain in Texas, the heat is going to come roaring back this weekend back into the triple digits,” he adds. “And that unfortunately offset some of the positive effects of the rain that has been falling in West Texas.”

Rippey says he’s not ready to say there will be a return of the 2011 growing season, where consecutive days of triple-digit heat, along with severe drought, robbed farmers of their crops. However, he is concerned about the early heat and what it could mean for overall crop yields this year in the area.

(Farm Journal)

Dealing with Drought Webinar to Assist Cow-Calf Producers with Decision Making

Fri, 13 May 2022 17:46:28 GMT

The K-State Research and Extension Beef Team and related subject matter specialists will host a webinar on May 19, 2022, from noon to 1 pm CT, to provide information and answer questions to help producers weigh options associated with current feed prices and forage availability.

Drought is not a new issue to cow-calf producers in Kansas, but the combination of a cool, dry spring, increased days of high wind and low humidity on top of the global economic impacts of a war and pandemic, make this year unique. The extended outlook indicates drought will persist in a good portion of the western United States including western Kansas.

“Producers are faced with challenging decisions since harvested feed supplies are depleted or gone and the outlook for pasture production is well below normal in much of the state. Record high prices for many production inputs are another factor,” says Sandy Johnson, KSRE extension beef specialist in Colby.

The webinar will open with some general comments and then transition to a town hall format to address audience questions. In addition to beef specialists, ag economists, and other subject matter specialists will be available during the session.

The webinar is free and open to all; however, registration is required. If you miss the webinar, a recording will be posted at KSUBeef.org as soon as possible after the meeting. Register at https://tinyurl.com/KSUdrought .

What You Need To Know About USDA Announcing Payments To Livestock Producers Hammered By Drought, Soaring Feed Costs

Mon, 04 Apr 2022 16:01:36 GMT

USDA a nnounces updated livestock disaster aid , while also outlining a new crop-related disaster effort. USDA says the launch of the Emergency Livestock Relief Program (ELRP) will address increases in supplemental feed costs in 2021. The ERLP will use data from the 2021 Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) to make payments to affected producers — producers do not have to apply for the aid if they were approved for an LFP payment.

They key to the program is no sign-ups will be required. There will be a pay cap, but details have not been released on that front.

Phases of the Payments

Phase 1 of the payments is expected to total $577 million, basing the payments on percentage of an eligible producers’ gross 2021 LFP payment — 90% for historically underserved producers and 75% for all other producers. And, the payments will be subject to a payment limit.
Phase 2: USDA said it was evaluating impacts of 2021 drought and wildfires on livestock producers as it develops the Phase 2 component.

Funding Background

The ELRP is being funded under aid included in the Extending Government Funding and Delivering Emergency Assistance Act signed into law in September 2021. That included $10 billion in assistance to agricultural producers with $750 million specifically for livestock producers for losses due to drought and wildfires in calendar 2021. USDA doesn’t use the term WHIP+, but this is the program most producers will know it by.

(Farm Journal)

More Drought Aid

USDA also announced it was setting up a two-phase approach for diversified, row crop and specialty crop operations affected by an eligible natural disaster event in calendar 2020 or 2021.

First phase of the assistance will use existing crop insurance or noninsured crop disaster assistance program data to calculate payments with funds and will issue details in the coming weeks.

Second phase will fill additional gaps in assistance for eligible producers who did not participate in risk management programs.

There was no expected total amount for payments under the crop-related effort.

USDA also said it will provide additional relief through the Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honeybees and Farm-raised Fish Program (ELAP) to help producers will above-normal cost of hauling livestock to forage. USDA pointed out the ELAP compensation will be retroactive for 2021 but will be available for losses in 2022 and subsequent years.

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Phases of the Payments

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