The USDA adjusted projections for 2013-2014 feed-grain supplies downward somewhat based on a slightly lower estimate of yields and higher projected use. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), released on January 10, also featured an increase in estimated beef production for 2013 and 2014.
USDA raised its estimate for harvested corn acres by 436,000 acres, but lowered its estimate for yield by 1.6 bushels per acre, leaving a projected corn harvest of 13.9 billion bushels. The report also raised the projection for corn use by 100 million bushels for the 2013-2014 marketing year.
Other key items in the report include:
- Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels reflecting continued strong weekly ethanol production, a reduction in expected sorghum use for ethanol, and higher forecast 2014 gasoline consumption.
- Corn ending stocks for the 2013-2014 crop are projected 161 million bushels lower than last-month’s estimate at 1.6 billion.
- The projected 2013-2014 season-average farm price for corn is unchanged at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $4.10 to $4.70 per bushel.
- Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-2014 are projected 1.2 million tons higher despite this
- month’s reduction in U.S. production.
- The forecasts for total red meat and poultry production for both 2013 and 2014 are lowered from December. For 2013, beef production is raised, but pork, broiler, and turkey production are reduced.
- The forecast for 2014 is reduced as lower pork and turkey production more than offset an increased beef production forecast.
- Although producers intend to farrow more sows in the first half of 2014, the impacts of the Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea virus (PEDv) will likely slow growth in pigs per litter and keep supplies of market hogs relatively tight during 2014.
- Beef production is raised for 2014 as higher-than-expected placements in the later part of 2013 and expected availability of winter pasture support increased cattle marketings and slaughter during the year.
- Beef imports are unchanged for 2013, but are raised slightly for 2014. Beef exports are raised for both 2013 and 2014 as the pace of exports over the past several months has been strong.
- The 2013 milk production estimate is reduced from last month, based on recent milk production data. The forecast for 2014 is raised as improving returns are expected to support a more rapid increase in output per cow.
View the full WASDE report from USDA.