Predictions of a record corn crop and the largest sorghum crop in five years have improved prospects for feed supplies and prices for the 2013-2014 crop year, according to USDA’s September Feed Outlook report released on Monday. This month the agency raised their forecast for corn production, projecting a record 13.8 bushels, and their projection for sorghum. Combined, USDA increased its estimate of U.S. corn and sorghum production by 118 million bushels over last’ month’s projection.
The report also increased the estimate for feed grain use for the 2013-2014 crop year, which at 135.1 million tons would be 14 percent higher than last year’s figure. In spite of that increase, ending stocks are projected to rise significantly for the new crop, and in fact will more than double the projection for the 2012-2013 crop if the estimate holds up. The report projects ending corn stocks for the 2013-2014 crop year at 1.8 billion bushels, compared with 661 million bushels for 2012-2013 and 989 for 2011-2012.
The report includes slight reductions in the estimates for global feed grain production and trade. U.S. corn exports for the 2013-2014 crop are projected at 1.2 billion bushels, up from 735 million for the current crop year. Imports on the other hand, will decline due to better domestic supplies. The report projects U.S. corn imports for the 2013-2014 crop year at 25 million bushels, compared with 162 million for the 2012-2013 market year.
USDA reduced its forecast for corn prices on the 2013-2014 crop by $0.10 per bushel on both ends of the range, to $4.40 to $5.20 per bushel, with a midpoint of $4.80 per bushel. They reduced their estimate of the 2012-2013 season average by $0.05 per bushel from last month’s midpoint. The current projected average, at $6.90 per bushel, is still a record high.
View the full Feed Outlook report from USDA.